Based on the permanganate index and total phosphorus data of Hengli River,Jiading District,Shanghai from 2009 to 2022,an ARIMA model was constructed and the future values were predicted.Exponential smoothing pretreatment was added to compare the performance of the ARIMA model before and after the treatment.The results show that the ARIMA model is relatively accurate in predicting permanganate index and has a large error in predicting total phosphorus.Compared with the single ARIMA model,the performance of the exponential smooth-ARIMA model was significantly improved,and the permanganate index and the fit excellence R2 of the total phosphorus prediction model were increased by 0.511 and 0.397,respectively,and the relative error of the total phosphorus prediction value was significantly reduced.The maximum reduction is 52.94％.
关键词
环境/河流水质预测/ARIMA/指数平滑/高锰酸盐指数/总磷
Key words
environment/river water quality prediction/ARIMA/exponential smoothing/permanganate index/total phosphorus
维普
万方数据