氢能产业技术发展与安全风险探析
Technical Development and Safety Risk Analysis of Hydrogen Energy Industry
牛小宁 1牛高志2
作者信息
- 1. 国家消防救援局昆明训练总队,云南 昆明 650208;云南省消防救援总队景洪市大队,云南 景洪 666100
- 2. 云南省消防救援总队景洪市大队,云南 景洪 666100
- 折叠
摘要
我国能源结构存在富煤、贫油、少气的特点,为切实推动可持续发展理念,构建人类命运共同体,我国"十四五规划"明确提出能源转型"减煤、降油、增气、加新"的发展路径,并宣布了2030 年达到"碳达峰"2060年达到"碳中和"的目标[1].其中到2030 年,碳排放下降65%,非化石能源占比25%,风电装机达到12 亿千瓦;2060年,风电装机容量为现在的 12倍,太阳能装机容量为现在的70 倍,燃油汽车将彻底退出历史舞台.随着终端能源的发展,电力装机容量的倍增,源端需求增加,电网的安全防护和能源的战略存储将受到挑战,间歇性电源和负荷会迅速增加,电网技术将面临升级,储能还会带来电力成本的上升,新型终端能源—"氢"将成为电力、热力之外唯一可以大规模使用的无碳终端能源.我国氢能产业目前正处于发展阶段,上游制氢99%属灰氢,中游储运技术与经济性存在瓶颈,下游氢应用技术更是刚刚起步,需结合各地资源分配状况及产业特点来推动多元化和差异化发展.电解制绿氢更是少之又少,在国家《"十四五"现代能源体系规划》背景下,氢能技术的发展前景广阔.
Abstract
The energy structure of our country is characterized by rich coal,poor oil and little gas,china's 14th five-year plan clearly puts forward the development path of energy transition:"Reduce coal,reduce oil,increase gas,add new",and announced the 2030"Carbon peak"2060 to achieve"Carbon neutrality"target.By 2030,carbon emissions will have dropped by 65%,non-fossil fuels will account for 25%,and wind power capacity will be 1.2 gigawatts.By 2060,wind capacity will be 12 times larger than it is today,and solar capacity will be 70 times larger,fuel cars will be out of the picture.With the development of terminal energy,the installed capacity of electric power multiplies,the demand of source-end increases,the security of power grid and the strategic storage of energy will be challenged,and the intermittent power supply and load will increase rapidly,grid technology will be upgraded,energy storage will also bring higher electricity costs,new terminal energy-"Hydrogen"will be the only large-scale use of electricity,heat,carbon-free terminal energy.At present,the hydrogen industry in our country is in the initial stage of development,and 99%of the upstream hydrogen production is gray hydrogen,it is necessary to promote diversification and differentiation according to the distribution of resources and the characteristics of industries.The production of electrolyte green hydrogen is less than 1%,and hydrogen energy technology has a bright future under the background of double carbon.
关键词
绿氢/新能源/氢能产业发展/氢能技术发展/氢能安全风险Key words
green hydrogen/new energy/development of hydrogen industry/development of hydrogen technology/safety risk of hydrogen energy引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据