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粤东夏季复合高温干旱事件特征初探

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选取1967-2021年5-10月粤东20个国家气象站逐日最高气温和逐日干旱指数(DI),基于滑动窗口计算逐日90(或10)百分位高温(或干旱)阈值,以此判别高温(或干旱)事件和定义粤东复合高温干旱事件,并通过线性分析、滑动t检验、小波分析和EOF分解等统计方法研究粤东夏季复合高温干旱事件时空分布特征.结果表明:(1)粤东夏季复合高温干旱事件呈北多、南少趋势空间分布,趋势变化大值区出现在中部普宁揭阳一带,对应EOF分解的第2和3模态即南北偶极型和南北3极型,而粤东夏季复合高温干旱事件的主要空间分布模态为全区一致偏多或偏少型(第1模态);(2)粤东夏季复合高温干旱事件增长趋势显著,大致呈"升-降-升"的变化趋势,其中在1991年经历了由下降到上升的明显突变.复合高温干旱事件具有10年左右的主周期振荡和3、5年左右的周期变化特征;(3)粤东夏季复合高温干旱事件在20世纪90年代前主要集中在7-8月,之后5和9月增长趋势明显高于其他月份;(4)20世纪90年代前后粤东不同持续时间复合高温干旱事件有显著差异,之前以1 d为主,之后以2d及持续性(≥3 d以上)的复合高温干旱事件为主,其中持续性复合高温干旱事件是粤东夏季复合高温干旱事件显著增长的主要贡献.
A Preliminary Study on the Characteristics of Compound Drought and Heat Events in the Summer of Eastern Guangdong
Using the daily maximum temperature data from 20 national meteorological observation sta-tions in eastern Guangdong from May to October in 1967-2021 and a drought index,this work identifies high-temperature(or drought)events and defines compound drought and heat events(to be abbreviated as"CPD-dr/ht event"hereafter)using sliding windows to obtain the thresholds of daily 90(or 10)percentiles for high temperature or droughts.Then,the statistical approaches of linear analysis,sliding t-test,wavelet analysis and EOF decomposition are used to study the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the CPD-dr/ht event in this part of the province.The results are shown as follows.(1)The CPD-dr/ht event in the summer of eastern Guangdong presents a spatial distribution that is generally more in the north than in the south,with the trends of large CPD-dr/ht event values distributed in Puning and Jieyang(the central part of eastern Guangdong),corresponding to the second and third modes of EOF decomposition,or the north-south dipole and north-south triple patterns.The main spatial distribution mode of the CPD-dr/ht event is consist-ently more or less across the whole eastern Guangdong(i.e.the first mode).(2)The CPD-dr/ht event in-creases significantly in a general trend of going up,down and then up again.It is noteworthy that a signifi-cant abrupt change was recorded in 1991 that marked with a change from descending to ascending.The CPD-dr/ht event consists of an oscillation at the primary period of about 10 years and periodic variation at a-bout three or five years.(3)The CPD-dr/ht event mainly concentrated in July to August before the 1990s but its increasing trend was much higher in May and September than in the rest of the year after it.(4)A-round the 1990s,the CPD-dr/ht event differed much in persisting duration;it mainly lasted 1 d before the 1990s but 2 d or even 3 d or more(persistently)after it,in which persistent CPD-dr/ht events were the main contributor of this type of event.

climatologycompound drought and heat eventrelative thresholdsliding windowsum-mereastern Guangdong

刘泳涛、谢洁宏、黄河莎、林伟彬、王周玉、叶梦茜

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普宁市气象局,广东普宁 515300

揭阳市气象局,广东揭阳 522000

惠来县气象局,广东惠来 515200

气候学 复合高温干旱事件 相对阈值 滑动窗口 夏季 粤东

广东省气象局科技计划项目

GRMC2022Q25

2024

广东气象
广东省气象学会

广东气象

影响因子:1.013
ISSN:1007-6190
年,卷(期):2024.46(1)
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