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河源市前汛期暖区暴雨环境参数的统计分析

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采用2007-2022年4-6月河源市探空资料和地面常规观测资料,统计分析了河源市前汛期暖区暴雨时空分布特征和环境参数,并基于百分位法提取了不同等级暖区暴雨的预报关键阈值.结果表明:4-6月暖区暴雨事件逐月明显增加,且72.5%出现在南海夏季风爆发以后;发生频次的空间分布自西向东逐渐减少,高频次站点均处于东北-西南向的喇叭口地形附近;925与850 hPa温度露点差的平均值、500 hPa温度露点差、整层比湿积分、抬升指数、K指数和0~3 km垂直风切变对典型河源暖区暴雨事件的发生具有较清晰指示意义.
Statistical Analysis of Environmental Parameters of Warm-sector Rainstorms in the April-June Rainy Season of Heyuan
The sounding data and conventional surface observations of Heyuan for April-June from 2007 to 2022 were used to statistically analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and environmen-tal parameters of the warm-sector rainstorms of the city and key thresholds for forecasting different levels of warm-sector rainstorms were extracted based on the percentile method.The results are shown as follows.From April to June for the years studied,the warm-sector rainstorm events increased significantly month by month,and 72.5%of them appeared after the summer monsoon outbreak in the South China Sea.The spa-tial distribution of occurrence frequency gradually decreases from west to east,and the high frequency sta-tions are all located near the terrain of a northeast-southwest-aligned trumpet mouth.The average value of the difference between temperature and dew point at 925 hPa and 850 hPa,the temperature-dew point difference at 500 hPa,the integrated water vapor(IWV),uplift index,K index and 0-3 km vertical wind shear have clear indications for the occurrence of typical rainstorm events in Heyuan.

climatologywarm-sector rainstormsoundingenvironmental parameterHeyuan

段海花、曾丹丹、彭瑨婧、钟东良

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河源市气象局,广东河源 517000

气候学 暖区暴雨 探空 环境参数 河源市

河源市智能网格预报技术创新团队项目河源市气象局气象科学技术项目

HYQXTD2022012021A01

2024

广东气象
广东省气象学会

广东气象

影响因子:1.013
ISSN:1007-6190
年,卷(期):2024.46(2)
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