东莞大暴雨天气形势的客观分型
Objective Classification of Heavy Rain Weather Situation in Dongguan
刘碧琪 1张劲梅1
作者信息
- 1. 东莞市气象局,广东东莞 523086;东莞市城市生态环境气象工程技术研究中心/粤港澳大湾区气象研究院,广东东莞 523086
- 折叠
摘要
为提高大暴雨精细化预报的能力,利用自组织映射这一无监督人工神经网络模型,对2013-2023年东莞大暴雨过程进行客观分型.结果表明:东莞大暴雨过程出现在西南风型、锋面型、台风残涡型、季风低槽型、强盛台风型和东亚大槽型等6类天气形势.合成分析显示,不同类型的大暴雨过程之间的动热力条件存在差异,并产生不同的降水影响,从而形成对应类型的东莞本地化预报参考指标.
Abstract
In order to improve the ability of fine prediction of heavy rain,an unsupervised artificial neural network model of self-organization mapping was used to objectively classify the processes of heavy rain in Dongguan in 2013-2023.The results are shown as follows.The processes of heavy rain in Dongguan ap-pear in six types of weather situation,including southwest wind type,front type,typhoon residual vortex type,monsoon low trough type,strong typhoon type and East Asian main trough type.As shown in compos-ite analyses,the dynamic and thermodynamic conditions differ between different types of heavy rain proces-ses,and produce different precipitation effects,thus forming corresponding types of localized forecast refer-ence index for Dongguan.
关键词
气候学/大暴雨/天气形势/客观分型/自组织映射(SOM)/东莞Key words
climatology/heavy rain/weather situation/objective classification/self-organization map-ping/Dongguan引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据