首页|广东省主要江河68年径流量年际变化特征分析

广东省主要江河68年径流量年际变化特征分析

Analysis of Interannual Variation Characteristics of Runoff of Major Rivers in Guangdong Province Over the Past 68 Years

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基于广东省西江、北江、东江、韩江、鉴江等 5 条主要江河 1956-2023 年共 68 a 的径流量资料,分析了径流量的基本特征和趋势性、自相关性、随机性和空间相关性等变化特性.结果表明,5 条江河径流量的年际变化总体较大;西江的平水年较多,而其他江河的特丰年和特枯年较多;5 条江河径流量的年际变化趋势性不明显,北江、鉴江、西江呈不显著上升趋势,东江、韩江呈不显著下降趋势;径流量序列的年际自相关性很低,接近于纯随机性,旱涝切换的规律性不强;西江与其他 4 条江河的年径流量序列的互相关性较弱,互补性较强;北江、东江和韩江的年径流量序列的互相关性较强,同丰同枯现象明显;鉴江的年径流量序列与其他江河的互相关性也较弱.
Based on the runoff data of five major rivers in Guangdong Province,including Xijiang,Beijiang,Dongjiang,Hanjiang,and Jianjiang,from 1956 to 2023 for a total of 68 years,this paper analyzes the basic characteristics,trend,autocorrelation,randomness,and spatial correlation of runoff.The results indicate that the interannual variation of the runoff of the five rivers is generally significant;The Xijiang River has more normal flow years,while other rivers have more particularly abundant and dry years;The interannual variation trend of the runoff of the five rivers is not significant,with the Beijiang,and Jianjiang,Xijiang showing an insignificant upward trend,and the Dongjiang and Hanjiang showing an insignificant downward trend;The interannual autocorrelation of the runoff series is very low,close to pure randomness,and the regularity of drought and flood switching is not strong;The annual runoff sequences of Xijiang and the other four rivers have weak cross-correlation and strong complementarity;The annual runoff sequences of Beijiang,Dongjiang,and Hanjiang have strong cross-correlation,and the phenomenon of both abundant and dry seasons is obvious;The annual runoff sequence of Jianjiang River is also weakly correlated with other rivers.

Guangdong Provincerunoffinter annual variationtrendlinesscorrelationrandomnessXijiang RiverBeijiang RiverDongjiang River

王进、李湘姣、杨琳、林凯荣

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广东省水文局,广州 510150

广东省水文局广州水文分局,广州 510150

中山大学 土木工程学院,广州 510275

广东省海洋土木工程重点实验室,广州 510275

广东省华南地区水安全调控工程技术研究中心,广州 510275

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广东省 径流 年际变化 趋势性 相关性 随机性 西江 北江 东江

国家优秀青年科学基金项目广东省基础与应用基础研究基金项目

518229082023B1515040028

2024

广东水利水电
广东省水利水电科学研究院

广东水利水电

影响因子:0.309
ISSN:1008-0112
年,卷(期):2024.(9)
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