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风电和光伏发电功率联合预测与预调度框架

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随着多区域互联电力系统的发展,风电、光伏等新能源发电大规模并网,风电-光伏功率的联合预测和协调调度是必然趋势和迫切需求.为此,从风电-光伏发电的时空相关性分析出发,对风电-光伏功率时空耦合、风电光伏联合预测建模、风电光伏联合预测模型参数优化、考虑风电-光伏联合预测的电力系统预调度等方面进行了分析讨论.首先,研究揭示风电-光伏功率在时间-空间上的交互影响机理,提出面向多时间尺度的风电-光伏功率时间互补性分析方法,建立风电-光伏发电空间相关性量化模型,构建基于多阶图卷积神经网络风电-光伏发电时空耦合模型;基于此,研究提出了融合异构图神经网络的风电-光伏联合预测方法,建立了风电-光伏联合预测模型参数优化模型,构建了新能源有功功率预测误差矢量评价体系,为风电-光伏联合发电系统的协调调度和控制提供决策支撑;在风电-光伏联合发电预测的基础上,采用风电、光伏发电时间互补、空间互济的思路探讨了风电-光伏联合的电力系统预调度策略和方法,对不同时间尺度风电-光伏的协调调度策略进行了剖析,建立了电网-区域-集群-场站空间递阶的风电-光伏联合发电系统分层调度框架.最后,展望了未来风电-光伏联合预测与预调度方面应研究的方向.
Framework for Joint Wind and Photovoltaic Power Forecasting and Pre-dispatch
With the development of multi-region interconnected power system,the wind power,photovoltaic(PV)and other new energy power generation are connected to the grid on a large scale,and it is an inevitable trend and urgent need to perform the joint prediction and coordinated scheduling of wind power-photovoltaic power.Starting from the analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of wind power-photovoltaic(PV)power generation,this paper analyzes and discusses the spatio-temporal coupling of wind power-PV power,modelling of wind power-PV joint forecast,optimization of the parameters of wind power-PV joint forecast model,and pre-dispatch of the power system considering the wind-PV joint forecast.Firstly,the mechanism of wind-PV power interaction in time-space is revealed,a multi-time scale wind-PV power time complementarity analysis method is proposed,a quantitative model for the spatial correlation of wind-PV power generation is established,and a spatial and temporal coupling model for wind-PV power generation is constructed based on a multistage graph convolutional neural network.Based on the results above,a joint prediction method of wind-PV power by integrating heterogeneous graph neural networks is proposed,a joint forecasting model for wind-PV power optimization model of the parameters of the joint prediction model is constructed,and a new energy active power prediction error vector evaluation system is constructed,which provide decision-making supports for the coordinated scheduling and control of the wind-optical joint power generation system.On the basis of wind-optical joint power gener-ation prediction,the wind power and photovoltaic power generation time complementary and spatial mutual aid ideas are used to explore the wind-optical joint power system pre-scheduling strategies and methods,and the wind-optical coordi-nated scheduling strategies at different time scales are dissected and analyzed,and a hierarchical scheduling framework for the combined wind-photovoltaic power generation system with spatial progression of power grid-region-cluster-field station is established.Finally,the prospects in future researches on wind-PV joint prediction and pre-dispatch are put for-ward.

wind-PV joint predictionspatio-temporal correlationheterogeneous graph neural networkwind-PV coor-dinated schedulingpower system pre-dispatch

叶林、裴铭、李卓、宋旭日、罗雅迪、汤涌

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中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院,北京 100083

电网安全全国重点实验室(中国电力科学研究院有限公司),北京 100192

风电-光伏联合预测 时空相关性 异构图神经网络 风电-光伏协调调度 电力系统预调度

国家重点研发计划国家电网有限公司科技国家自然科学基金新型电力系统联合基金重点项目

2022YFB2403000522722230034U22B20117

2024

10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20241424

高电压技术
中国电力科学研究院　中国电机工程学会

高电压技术

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：2.32
ISSN：1003-6520
年,卷(期)：2024.50(9)
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