A Method for Evaluating Failure Probability of Oil Gas Pipeline Based on Failure Data Statistics
The evaluation of failure probability plays an important role in the risks assessment of oil gas pipeline,and the related methods are always regarded as the difficulties in research.In response to the shortage of the existing methods,based on PHMSA failure database,the causes for the failure of oil gas pipeline were analyzed from the aspect of oil gas pipeline itself.A set of methods for evaluating failure probability of oil gas pipeline were established subject to failure data statistics,and an index system of correction factors was built,which contained ten quantitative indicators.Quantitative indicators were fitted based on the failure database,and this method was combined with pipeline characteristics to analyze and evaluate the failure probability of oil gas pipelines.Applying this method to specific pipelines produces different failure probabilities,which assist pipeline operators in use of risk reduction measures.
oil gas pipelineprobability of failureinvalid databaseinfluencing factors of failurequantitative indicators
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