Analysis of the Cultivated Land Pattern Changes and Its Driving Forces in Shaanxi Province
The cultivated land use status and its temporal-spatial pattern were analyzed based on the cultivated land statistical data in Shaanxi Province between 1990 and 2010.In this study,the principal component analysis method and the multiple linear regression models were applied to explore the relationship between the cultivated land resource and 14 driving factors.The result shows that： the total cultivated area and its average level have experienced ＂slow reduce-rapidly shrinking-relative stability and increased slightly＂ change process.The cultivated area in Shaanxi Province was basically decreasing for years,its internal structure changed greatly.The main driving factors of the cultivated area changing are agricultural structure adjustment,agricultural modernization level,social and economic factors.Using the grey dynamic prediction model GM（1,1） to forecast the cultivated land area in the following 11 years,the result shows that the cultivated area will decline continuously in the future,the cultivated area might be 2 263.74 khm2 by 2020.
cultivated landprincipal component analysisdriving factorsGM（11）Shaanxi Province
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
维普
