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四川盆地降水量变化特征分析

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基于四川盆地内8个雨量站1954-2010年的月降水资料,运用降水集度、线性回归分析、滑动平均法、距平百分率、Kendall秩次相关法、小波分析、Mann-Kendall检验法以及滑动t检验法,对四川盆地降水量年内分配情况、年和四季降水量变化趋势、周期及突变性进行了分析.结果表明,四川盆地降水量年内分配呈季节性变化;年及四季降水量均呈减少趋势,其中,年和秋季降水量减少趋势在95%置信区间内显著;年、秋季和冬季降水量变化周期较短,均小于10a;春季和冬季降水量不存在明显的突变点,年和秋季降水量突变开始的时间分别为1985年和1997年,夏季存在2次突变,突变点分别为1979年和1997年.
Analysis of Variation Characteristics of Precipitation in Sichuan Basin
Based on the data of monthly mean precipitation recorded at 8 weather stations in Sichuan basin from 1954 to 2010,the characteristics of the change in precipitation were analyzed by precipitation concentration index,linear regressive method,moving average curve,anomaly precent,Kendall rank test method,Morlet wavelet analysis,Mann-Kendall rank statistic method and moving t statistic method.The results indicated that the annual distribution of precipitation was regular in a certain degree with the seasonal changes.The fluctuation of annual and the four seasons precipitation exhibited a tendency of decreasing,precipitation in annual and autunn decreased significantly at 0.05 significant level.The major period was less than 10 years in annual,autumn and winter rainfall.1958 and 1997 were the abrupt precipitation in annual and autumn.The two abrupt of summer precipitation were 1979 and 1997.

Sichuan basinprecipitationtendencyperiodMann-Kendall rank statistic method

奚圆圆、黄晓荣、李晶晶、高蔺云、马凯

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四川大学水利水电学院,成都610065

四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,成都610065

四川盆地 降水量 趋势 周期 Mann-Kendall检验法

国家自然科学基金面上项目国家重点基础研究发展计划项目

515791612015CB452701

2017

灌溉排水学报
水利部农田灌溉研究所,中国农科院农田灌溉研究所 中国水利学会,国家灌溉排水委员会

灌溉排水学报

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.502
ISSN:1672-3317
年,卷(期):2017.36(1)
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