Disease burden of chronic kidney disease attributable to high BMI in China and trend prediction in 1992-2021
Objective To analyze the disease burden of chronic kidney diseases(CKD)attributed to high body mass index(BMI)in China from 1992 to 2021 and predict the disease burden for the next decade,and to provide evidence for the prevention and treatment of CKD.Methods Using the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)database and the Joinpoint model,the average annual percentage rate change(AAPC)of the mortality rate and disability-adjusted life year(DALY)rate was calculated to describe and analyze the CKD disease burden attributed to high BMI in China from 1992 to 2021.The ARIMA model was employed to predict and analyze the change trend of the CKD disease burden.Results From 1992 to 2021,the mortality rate and DALY rate attributed to high BMI-induced chronic kidney disease showed an upward trend.Compared to 1992,the attributed number of deaths increased by 324.38％,and DALYs increased by 268.56％;the mortality rate increased by 64.00％,and the DALY rate grew by 51.62％.From 1992 to 2021,the mortality rate and DALY rate for males were lower than those for females,but the growth rate for males exceeded that of females.From 1992 to 2021,the mortality rate and DALY rate of chronic kidney disease attributed to high BMI in China increased with age.The average annual change rate of chronic kidney disease attributed to high BMI in China from 1992 to 2021(mortality rate:1.40 per 100 000(95％CI:1.04-1.76),DALY rate:1.43 per 100 000(95％CI:1.17-1.70)was higher than thHuaiyin Normal University,Huai'anher social demographic index(SDI)regions.The ARIMA model predicted that the age-standardized mortality rate increased from 2.91 per 100 000 in 2022 to 3.05 per 100 000 in 2026,and the age-standardized DALY rate increased from 69.65 per 100 000 in 2022 to 73.58 per 100 000 in 2026.Conclusion Chronic kidney disease attributed to high BMI in China is on the rise,and it will continue to grow in the future.The focus of CKD prevention and control should be on males and the elderly,while active measures should be taken to reduce the occurrence and progression of chronic kidney disease.
High body mass indexChronic kidney diseaseDisease burdenARIMA model
万方数据
