干旱环境监测2024,Vol.38Issue(3) :112-118.

基于LMDI法的镇江市二氧化碳排放影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Influencing Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Zhenjiang City Based on LMDI Method

赵海荣 孙伟 黄顺兴
干旱环境监测2024,Vol.38Issue(3) :112-118.

基于LMDI法的镇江市二氧化碳排放影响因素分析

Analysis of Factors Influencing Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Zhenjiang City Based on LMDI Method

赵海荣 1孙伟 1黄顺兴1
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作者信息

  • 1. 江苏省镇江环境监测中心,江苏镇江 212000
  • 折叠

摘要

采用排放因子法对镇江市2010-2022年能源消费二氧化碳排放进行测算,通过LMDI(对数平均迪氏指数法)对二氧化碳排放量进行影响因素分析.结果表明:2010-2022年,镇江市二氧化碳排放量总体呈增长趋势,GDP平均增速(7.9%)大于二氧化碳排放平均增速(4.13%),地区经济发展对能耗的依赖有所下降.2010-2022年镇江市二氧化碳排放增长量约2 778.0 ×104 t,其中经济发展效应呈显著正效应,累积贡献率203.6%;能源消费强度效应呈显著负效应,累积贡献率-117.8%;能源结构强度效应和人口发展效应为正效应,累积贡献率分别为6.7%和7.6%.

Abstract

Carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Zhenjiang City from 2010 to 2022 were measured by the emis-sion factor method,and the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emissions were analyzed by LMDI(log-average Dix index method).The results show that from 2010 to 2022,the overall carbon dioxide emissions in Zhenjiang City showed an increas-ing trend,with an average GDP growth rate(7.9%)greater than the average carbon dioxide emissions growth rate(4.13%).The dependence of regional economic development on energy consumption has decreased.From 2010 to 2022,the carbon dioxide emissions in Zhenjiang City increased by approximately 27.78 million tons,with a significant positive effect on economic development and a cumulative contribution rate of 203.6%;The energy consumption in-tensity effect shows a sig-nificant negative effect,with a cumulative contribution rate of-117.8%;The energy structure inten-sity effect and popula-tion development effect are positive effects,with cumulative contribution rates of 6.7%and 7.6%,respectively.

关键词

LMDI法/碳排放/因素分析/镇江市

Key words

LMDI method/Carbon emissions/Factor analysis/Zhenjiang City

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基金项目

江苏省镇江环境监测中心监测科研基金项目(ZJ2105)

镇江市社会发展指导性科技计划项目(FZ2021050)

出版年

2024
干旱环境监测
新疆环境监测总站

干旱环境监测

影响因子:0.619
ISSN:1007-1504
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