首页|基于LMDI法的镇江市二氧化碳排放影响因素分析

基于LMDI法的镇江市二氧化碳排放影响因素分析

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采用排放因子法对镇江市2010-2022年能源消费二氧化碳排放进行测算,通过LMDI(对数平均迪氏指数法)对二氧化碳排放量进行影响因素分析.结果表明:2010-2022年,镇江市二氧化碳排放量总体呈增长趋势,GDP平均增速(7.9%)大于二氧化碳排放平均增速(4.13%),地区经济发展对能耗的依赖有所下降.2010-2022年镇江市二氧化碳排放增长量约2 778.0 ×104 t,其中经济发展效应呈显著正效应,累积贡献率203.6%;能源消费强度效应呈显著负效应,累积贡献率-117.8%;能源结构强度效应和人口发展效应为正效应,累积贡献率分别为6.7%和7.6%.
Analysis of Factors Influencing Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Zhenjiang City Based on LMDI Method
Carbon dioxide emissions from energy consumption in Zhenjiang City from 2010 to 2022 were measured by the emis-sion factor method,and the influencing factors of carbon dioxide emissions were analyzed by LMDI(log-average Dix index method).The results show that from 2010 to 2022,the overall carbon dioxide emissions in Zhenjiang City showed an increas-ing trend,with an average GDP growth rate(7.9%)greater than the average carbon dioxide emissions growth rate(4.13%).The dependence of regional economic development on energy consumption has decreased.From 2010 to 2022,the carbon dioxide emissions in Zhenjiang City increased by approximately 27.78 million tons,with a significant positive effect on economic development and a cumulative contribution rate of 203.6%;The energy consumption in-tensity effect shows a sig-nificant negative effect,with a cumulative contribution rate of-117.8%;The energy structure inten-sity effect and popula-tion development effect are positive effects,with cumulative contribution rates of 6.7%and 7.6%,respectively.

LMDI methodCarbon emissionsFactor analysisZhenjiang City

赵海荣、孙伟、黄顺兴

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江苏省镇江环境监测中心,江苏镇江 212000

LMDI法 碳排放 因素分析 镇江市

江苏省镇江环境监测中心监测科研基金项目镇江市社会发展指导性科技计划项目

ZJ2105FZ2021050

2024

干旱环境监测
新疆环境监测总站

干旱环境监测

影响因子:0.619
ISSN:1007-1504
年,卷(期):2024.38(3)