干旱区科学2023，Vol.15Issue(7) ：757-778.DOI:10.1007/s40333-023-0062-z

Correlation analysis between the Aral Sea shrinkage and the Amu Darya River

WANG Min CHEN Xi CAO Liangzhong KURBAN Alishir SHI Haiyang WU Nannan EZIZ Anwar YUAN Xiuliang Philippe DE MAEYER
干旱区科学2023，Vol.15Issue(7) ：757-778.DOI:10.1007/s40333-023-0062-z
✕
  • 国家科技期刊平台
  • NETL
  • NSTL
  • 维普
  • 万方数据

Correlation analysis between the Aral Sea shrinkage and the Amu Darya River

WANG Min 1CHEN Xi 2CAO Liangzhong 3KURBAN Alishir 4SHI Haiyang 5WU Nannan 6EZIZ Anwar 6YUAN Xiuliang 6Philippe DE MAEYER1
扫码查看

作者信息

  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Department of Geography,Ghent University,Ghent 9000,Belgium;Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-Information,Urumqi 830011,China;Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-Information,Ghent 9000,Belgium
  • 2. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China;Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-Information,Urumqi 830011,China;Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-Information,Ghent 9000,Belgium;Research Center for Ecology and Environment of Central Asia,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China
  • 3. Jiujiang University,Jiujiang 332000,China
  • 4. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China;Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-Information,Urumqi 830011,China;Sino-Belgian Joint Laboratory of Geo-Information,Ghent 9000,Belgium
  • 5. Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China
  • 6. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China
  • 折叠

Abstract

The shrinkage of the Aral Sea,which is closely related to the Amu Darya River,strongly affects the sustainability of the local natural ecosystem,agricultural production,and human well-being.In this study,we used the Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt change,Seasonal change,and Trend(BEAST)model to detect the historical change points in the variation of the Aral Sea and the Amu Darya River and analyse the causes of the Aral Sea shrinkage during the 1950–2016 period.Further,we applied multifractal detrend cross-correlation analysis(MF-DCCA)and quantitative analysis to investigate the responses of the Aral Sea to the runoff in the Amu Darya River,which is the main source of recharge to the Aral Sea.Our results showed that two significant trend change points in the water volume change of the Aral Sea occurred,in 1961 and 1974.Before 1961,the water volume in the Aral Sea was stable,after which it began to shrink,with a shrinkage rate fluctuating around 15.21 km3/a.After 1974,the water volume of the Aral Sea decreased substantially at a rate of up to 48.97 km3/a,which was the highest value recorded in this study.In addition,although the response of the Aral Sea's water volume to its recharge runoff demonstrated a complex non-linear relationship,the replenishment of the Aral Sea by the runoff in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya River was identified as the dominant factor affecting the Aral Sea shrinkage.Based on the scenario analyses,we concluded that it is possible to slow down the retreat of the Aral Sea and restore its ecosystem by increasing the efficiency of agricultural water use,decreasing agricultural water use in the middle and lower reaches,reducing ineffective evaporation from reservoirs and wetlands,and increasing the water coming from the lower reaches of the Amu Darya River to the 1961–1973 level.These measures would maintain and stabilise the water area and water volume of the Aral Sea in a state of ecological restoration.Therefore,this study focuses on how human consumption of recharge runoff affects the Aral Sea and provides scientific perspective on its ecological conservation and sustainable development.

Key words

Aral Sea shrinkage/recharge runoff/Amu Darya River/Syr Darya River/multifractal detrend cross-correlation analysis(MF-DCCA)/Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt change,Seasonal change,and Trend(BEAST)/Central Asia

引用本文复制引用

基金项目

National Natural Science Foundation of China(42230708)

Joint CAS(Chinese Academy of Sciences)&MPG(Max-Planck-Gesellschaft)Research Project(HZXM20225001MI)

Tianshan Talent Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China(2022TSYCLJ0056)

出版年

2023
干旱区科学
中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,科学出版社

干旱区科学

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.743
ISSN：1674-6767
参考文献量6
段落导航相关论文