干旱区科学2024,Vol.16Issue(3) :331-354.DOI:10.1007/s40333-024-0054-7

Improving the accuracy of precipitation estimates in a typical inland arid area of China using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging approach

XU Wenjie DING Jianli BAO Qingling WANG Jinjie XU Kun
干旱区科学2024,Vol.16Issue(3) :331-354.DOI:10.1007/s40333-024-0054-7

Improving the accuracy of precipitation estimates in a typical inland arid area of China using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging approach

XU Wenjie 1DING Jianli 1BAO Qingling 1WANG Jinjie 1XU Kun1
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作者信息

  • 1. College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830017,China;Key Laboratory of Smart City and Environment Modelling of Higher Education Institute,Xinjiang University,Urumqi 830017,China
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Abstract

Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is a typical inland arid area in China with a sparse and uneven distribution of meteorological stations,limited access to precipitation data,and significant water scarcity.Evaluating and integrating precipitation datasets from different sources to accurately characterize precipitation patterns has become a challenge to provide more accurate and alternative precipitation information for the region,which can even improve the performance of hydrological modelling.This study evaluated the applicability of widely used five satellite-based precipitation products(Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station(CHIRPS),China Meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),Climate Prediction Center morphing method(CMORPH),Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks-Climate Data Record(PERSIANN-CDR),and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis(TMPA))and a reanalysis precipitation dataset(ECMWF Reanalysis v5-Land Dataset(ERA5-Land))in Xinjiang using ground-based observational precipitation data from a limited number of meteorological stations.Based on this assessment,we proposed a framework that integrated different precipitation datasets with varying spatial resolutions using a dynamic Bayesian model averaging(DBMA)approach,the expectation-maximization method,and the ordinary Kriging interpolation method.The daily precipitation data merged using the DBMA approach exhibited distinct spatiotemporal variability,with an outstanding performance,as indicated by low root mean square error(RMSE=1.40 mm/d)and high Person's correlation coefficient(CC=0.67).Compared with the traditional simple model averaging(SMA)and individual product data,although the DBMA-fused precipitation data were slightly lower than the best precipitation product(CMFD),the overall performance of DBMA was more robust.The error analysis between DBMA-fused precipitation dataset and the more advanced Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement Final(IMERG-F)precipitation product,as well as hydrological simulations in the Ebinur Lake Basin,further demonstrated the superior performance of DBMA-fused precipitation dataset in the entire Xinjiang region.The proposed framework for solving the fusion problem of multi-source precipitation data with different spatial resolutions is feasible for application in inland arid areas,and aids in obtaining more accurate regional hydrological information and improving regional water resources management capabilities and meteorological research in these regions.

Key words

precipitation estimates/satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation/dynamic Bayesian model averaging/streamflow simulation/Ebinur Lake Basin/Xinjiang

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基金项目

Technology Innovation Team(Tianshan Innovation Team)()

Innovative Team for Efficient Utilization of Water Resources in Arid Regions(2022TSYCTD0001)

National Natural Science Foundation of China(42171269)

Xinjiang Academician Workstation Cooperative Research Project(2020.B-001)

出版年

2024
干旱区科学
中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,科学出版社

干旱区科学

CSTPCDCSCD
影响因子:1.743
ISSN:1674-6767
参考文献量61
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