Exploration of the hysteresis response characteristics of precipitation in China to tropical Pacific sea surface temperature
Examine the relationship between tropical Pacific sea surface temperature(SST)and precipitation in China has scientific significance for improving China's climate prediction level.Based on the long-term monthly rain gauge data of 160 stations in China and the monthly SST index from Climate Prediction Center(CPC),USA,this paper explores the response characteristics of precipitation in China to tropical Pacific SST changes through a new method of lag cumulative correlation.The results are as follows:(1)This method is able to reveal the cumulative effect of previous abnormal SST on the precipitation effectively,so as to provide a basis for selecting the optimal predictive factors.(2)Among Niño1+2,Niño3,Niño4,and Niño3.4 SST indices,previous Nino1+2 index has the most signifi-cant relationship with China's precipitation.More precisely,the positive correlation between Niño1+2 timeseries and the 4-month lagged precipitation,and the negative link between 2-month cumulative Niño1+2 time series and the the 9-month lagged precipitation in China are most significant.(3)The Niño1+2 SST can distinctly influence the precipitation in China's monsoon regions,with the stron-gest positive feedback are as primarily locate in the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Yunnan Province.(4)The linear fit-ting between the Niño1+2 time series and the average precipitation of China with a lag of 4 months shows that the fluctuation trend of fitted precipitation is consistent with that of the rain gauge data,with relative small fitting errors in winter and spring and larger errors in summer and autumn.
precipitation in Chinatropical Pacific SSTlag cumulative correlation coefficient
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
