CMPAS融合产品在陕西短时强降水监测中的适用性评估
Suitability assessment of CMA multi-source precipitation analysis products for short-term heavy rainfall monitoring in Shaanxi
刘菊菊 1赵强 2井宇 2张蔚然 2戴昌明2
作者信息
- 1. 陕西省气象台,陕西 西安 710014;陕西省气象局秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室,陕西 西安 710016
- 2. 陕西省气象台,陕西 西安 710014
- 折叠
摘要
使用2016-2021年陕西省降水数据以及2018-2021年中国区域融合降水分析系统(CMA Multi-source Precipitation Analysis System,CMPAS-V2.1)的二源和三源融合降水分析实时产品,分析陕西省近6 a短时强降水的时空特征,并通过统计检验方法评估融合降水产品的准确性,为融合产品在短时强降水过程中的订正提供参考依据.结果表明:(1)陕西省短时强降水的最高频次出现在19:00(北京时,下同),强降水主要集中在16:00至次日02:00,且更多发生在6-8月.强降水极值在17:00至次日01:00和04:00-07:00相对较大.陕南地区短时强降水频次明显高于关中和陕北地区;陕北北部、关中东部以及陕南中东部的强降水极值相对更大.(2)两类降水产品的降水量均偏小.三源产品的平均绝对误差在陕北南部、关中大部和陕南南部地区较小,而其余地区二源产品较优.平均绝对误差随着降水量的增加而增大,对于20～50 mm的短时强降水,三源产品更为可靠,而对于50 mm以上的强降水,二源产品表现更佳.(3)两类产品平均绝对误差在13:00-19:00、23:00至次日01:00和04:00-06:00较大,在08:00-12:00、20:00-22:00和02:00-03:00较小,5-8月三源产品表现优于二源产品,而在9-10月二源产品较为可信.(4)降水量阈值降低时融合产品的准确性增加.三源融合产品在性能上优于二源;9-10月两类融合产品的降水量均优于5-8月.
Abstract
Based on the precipitation data from Shaanxi Province from 2016 to 2021 and real-time products of two-source and three-source precipitation from the CMA Multi-source Precipitation Analysis System(CMPAS-V2.1)during 2018-2021,the spatial and tem-poral characteristics of short-term heavy rainfall in Shaanxi Province over the past 6 years were analyzed.Furthermore,statistical tests were applied to evaluate the accuracy of the multi-source precipitation products,with the aim of providing reference for correction of multi-source precipitation products in short-term heavy rainfall processes.The results are as follows:(1)In Shaanxi Province,the short-term heavy rainfall frequency peak was at 19:00 pm,with heavy precipitation primarily occurring from 16:00 to 02:00 in a day and pre-dominantly in the months of June to August.The diurnal extreme value of heavy rainfall shows relatively higher from 17:00 to 01:00 and from 04:00 to 07:00 in the morning.Short-term heavy rainfall is more frequent in southern Shaanxi compared to Guanzhong and north-ern Shaanxi.The regions with relatively larger extreme values include northern Shaanxi,eastern Guanzhong,and central-eastern of southern Shaanxi.(2)Both two types of precipitation products tend to underestimate precipitation compared to observed values.The mean absolute errors of the three-source product exhibit smaller in southern of northern Shaanxi,most part of Guanzhong and southern of southern Shaanxi,while the two-source product performs relatively better in other region.The mean absolute error increases with pre-cipitation increase.For heavy precipitation ranging from 20 to 50 mm,three-source product is recommended,while two-source product is more suitable for heavy precipitation above 50 mm.(3)The diurnal variations in mean absolute errors for both two types of multi-source products are relatively larger from 13:00 to 19:00,23:00 to 01:00 and from 04:00 to 06:00,and relatively smaller from 08:00 to 12:00,20:00 to 22:00 and from 02:00 to 03:00.The three-source product outperforms two-source product from May to August,while two-source product performs better from September to October.(4)The accuracy rate of multi-source precipitation products increases as the threshold of short-term heavy rainfall decrease.Both mean absolute error and accuracy rate indicate that the three-source product outperforms two-source product.Multi-source precipitation products exhibit higher accuracy from September to October compared to May to August.
关键词
融合产品/短时强降水/评估/陕西Key words
multi-source precipitation product/short-term heavy rainfall/assessment/Shaanxi引用本文复制引用
基金项目
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2023-JC-QN-0367)
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021Z009)
秦岭和黄土高原生态环境气象重点实验室面上项目(2022G-15)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据