Spatial and temporal variation characteristics and risk evolution of frost damage of loquat in Fujian Province
In order to identify the occurrence pattern of loquat frost damage in Fujian Province and scientifically respond to the risk of loquat planting in the background of climate change,we analyzed the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of frost damage fre-quency and risk levels at the flowering and young fruiting stages of loquat in Fujian Province during the periods of 1971-2000 and 2001-2020,based on daily minimum temperature observation data of 66 stations during 1971-2020,and by using regression analysis,linear trend analysis,entropy weighting method and transfer matrix approaches.The results are as follows:1)The frequency of frost damage in both the flowering and young fruiting periods of loquat presented a significantly decreasing trend,the decline was more pro-nounced during the young fruiting stage(0.57 times per decade)compared to the flowering stage(0.17 times per decade).The spatial scope of frost damage was also reduced,but fluctuations in different decades were significant,and in some individual decades there was widespread severe frost damage.2)The climatic trend rate of the frequency of frost damage at all levels exhibited a predominant de-crease,with similar spatial distribution characteristics.The areas and stations with significant reductions were primarily located in Nan-ping City,Ningde City,and Sanming City.3)Concerning the spatial and temporal variations of frost damage risk levels,the area of mild risk expanded to the middle-low altitude regions of central Nanping,while the moderate risk zone extended to the middle-altitude areas of the western Sanming and the north-central Nanping from 2001 to 2020 compared to the period of 1971-2000.The range of severe and above risk zones significantly decreased,primarily affecting western Sanming and Ningde and the northwest of Nanping and inland mid-altitude regions.With the backdrop of significant warming,the spatial and temporal distribution of frost risk of loquat in Fujian Province has undergone considerable changes,and in the central and western mid-low altitude areas of loquat cultivation scale can be slightly expended based on actual conditions.
loquat frost damageclimatic tendency ratefrost damage indextransfer matrixFujian Province
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
