Construction of an integrated rainstorm hazard risk warning model in semi-arid areas and its application in Ningxia
Heavy rainfalls and floods,waterlogging triggered by rainstorms are one of the most serious natural disasters in Ningxia.This paper constructs an integrated rainstorm hazard risk warning model in Ningxia to effectively predict the risk of heavy rainfall and issue risk warnings in advance,by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)and Delphi method,and considering four factors including hazard,exposure,vulnerability,and disaster mitigation capacity,the model incorporates 14 evaluation indicators such as population,economy,elevation,and vegetation etc.in Ningxia.Combined with GIS technology,a rainstorm event simulation was conducted.The re-sults show that the model comprehensively and objectively reflected integrated risk distribution during rainstorms.The analysis of the rainstorm on July 10,2022 indicated that the regions with the highest hazard were Jinfeng District and Xixia District of Yinchuan,Litong District of Wuzhong,Qingtongxia County,eastern Yanchi County,and Yuanzhou District of Guyuan;the highest exposure was in Yinchuan;the highest vulnerability was in western Qingtongxia,Tongxin County,Haiyuan County,Xiji County,and Pengyang County;the weakest disaster mitigation capacity was in Haiyuan County,and the highest integrated risk areas were Jinfeng District of Yinchuan,Litong District of Wuzhong,Haiyuan and Xiji County.Integrating the model with smart grid forecasting,the integrated rainstorm hazard risk can be calculated,which provides scientific basis for precise prevention in practical operations.
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