首页|东盟区域治理领导权何以评估:一种定量的分析

东盟区域治理领导权何以评估:一种定量的分析

扫码查看
21世纪以来,东盟着力提升自身中心性地位,力求在东南亚区域治理中发挥领导作用.东盟强化其领导权的努力能否取得成功,直接决定着东盟组织的未来走向.使用近年联合国大会投票数据检验东盟各成员国外交立场的一致性、大国竞争中的中立性以及是否坚持"互不干涉内政"原则,可对东盟提升领导权强化中心地位的现实成效作出有效评估.作者研究发现:首先,除缅甸和柬埔寨曾在部分年份出现过明显偏离东盟主流立场的情况,其余八国都高度自觉地维护了东盟组织的内部团结;其次,近年来东盟各成员国基于"地区中立"原则自觉校正外交立场的趋势越发明显,力求在中美两国在东南亚的战略竞争中保持平衡,以强化自身作为区域合作领导核心的话语力;再次,文莱、印尼、马来西亚对涉缅甸穆斯林权益议题的投票立场,违背了"互不干涉内政"原则,这反映出部分穆斯林国家政府在申明外交立场时,将国民宗教情感优先于东盟内部团结的决策偏好,对其领导区域治理的组织效力形成挑战.文章还分析了部分国家挑战"互不干涉内政"原则的深层动因可能是东盟内部各国社会发展形态的多样性以及国家构建的滞后性,这两个因素将长期且深刻地制约东盟在推进东南亚区域治理时发挥领导性作用.
A Probe on Assessing ASEAN's Leadership in Southeast Asian Regional Governance
Since the 21st century,ASEAN has strived to enhance its centrality and leadership in Southeast Asian regional governance,the success of which directly determines the future of the organization.Examining the voting data from recent UNGA sessions can assess the practical effectiveness of ASEAN's efforts to enhance its leadership and centrality by analyzing the consistency of its member states'diplomatic stances,their neutrality amidst great power competition,and their adherence to the principle of non-interference in internal affairs.This paper's findings reveal the following:First,except Myanmar and Cambodia,which deviated from ASEAN's mainstream stance in certain years,the remaining eight member states have consciously maintained internal unity within the organization.Second,in recent years,ASEAN member states have increasingly self-corrected their diplomatic stances based on the principle of"regional neutrality,"aiming to maintain a balance in the strategic competition between China and the United States in Southeast Asia,thereby strengthening their discourse power as the leading core of regional cooperation.Third,the voting stances of Brunei,Indonesia,and Malaysia on issues concerning the rights of Muslims in Myanmar violated the principle of non-interference in internal affairs,reflecting that some Muslim-majority governments prioritize national religious sentiments over ASEAN's internal unity when declaring their diplomatic positions,which poses a challenge to the organization's effectiveness in leading regional governance.This paper further analyzes that the underlying reasons for some countries challenging the principle of non-interference in internal affairs may be the diversity of social development patterns within ASEAN and the lagging nation-building processes,both of which will persistently and profoundly constrain ASEAN's ability to exercise leadership in advancing Southeast Asian regional governance.

ASEANthe ASEAN WayRegional GovernanceArea CooperationUNGA

李畅

展开 >

广东外语外贸大学国际关系学院,广州,510006

东盟 东盟方式 区域治理 地区合作 联合国大会

2024

国际观察
上海外国语大学

国际观察

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.158
ISSN:1005-4812
年,卷(期):2024.(3)
  • 8