Rethinking the Theory of"Imminent World War":from the Perspective of Chinese School of International Relations Theory
The world today is facing profound changes unseen in a century,with the disrupted international order,polarized international public opinion and ideological divides,frequent local conflicts and turmoil,and intensified strategic competition among major powers.In this context,some countries,particularly Western nations,have developed the theory of"imminent world war",whose narrative logic is highly dangerous and warrants close vigilance.The theoretical basis of the"imminent world war theory"mainly includes the theory of the tragedy of great power politics,the theory of the collapse of the international order,and the theory of power transition.As a reflection of international politics,this theory primarily mirrors the West's inherent international political logic and its west-centered mindset.In fact,the conditions for the world war are complex,arising from a combination of factors:(1)influential countries or groups are deeply involved in regional conflicts or incidents that could trigger a war;(2)direct warfare occurring between the major powers involved,rather than proxy wars;(3)direct clashes over core interests among great powers;and(4)conflict between two major blocs,with no stronger international political force above them capable of exerting influence to control both sides.In view of this,the"imminent world war theory"is not an objective judgment aligned with the realities of international relations but rather a subjective conjecture.Although the conditions for the world war are not in place,the risk of it remains constant.Would conflicts of interest among major powers be not effectively managed,they may accumulate over time and escalate into direct confrontations,thus fostering the risk of a world war.The theoretical deconstruction of this fallacy has become a necessary area of study for scholars.Preventing a global catastrophic disaster is the foremost task for peace forces in the world.At present,profound global changes are unfolding,the international system is undergoing significant transformation,and the adjustment of China's relations with the outside world has reached a critical stage.China's development now faces a new scenario where strategic opportunities coexist with risks and challenges,and factors of instability and uncertainty have significantly increased.Addressing crises and conflicts through security and development,avoiding strategic traps,adhering to the path of peaceful development,implementing the Global Security Initiative,and advancing Chinese modernization are essential tasks entrusted by the times and imperative goals to achieve.
the Imminent World War TheoryPeace and Developmentthe Global Security InitiativeChinese SchoolInternational Relations Theory
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