首页|数字贸易发展指标体系构建及影响因素分析——基于55个国家的面板数据

数字贸易发展指标体系构建及影响因素分析——基于55个国家的面板数据

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对数字贸易发展水平进行测度是研究和制定数字贸易发展战略的起点.本文从基础支撑、贸易业务、创新能力、贸易场景、贸易保障五个维度出发,构建包含5个一级指标、11个二级指标、23个三级指标的数字贸易发展指标体系,测度55个国家2011-2021年的数字贸易发展情况,并通过构建回归模型对数字贸易发展水平的影响因素进行检验.研究结果表明:全球整体数字贸易发展水平不断提升,同时存在一定的分化趋势,各国发展差距可能进一步加大;从整体看,发达国家的数字贸易发展水平明显高于发展中国家,且年度变化较小,处于稳定高位的状态;中国的数字贸易发展水平在近几年呈现出持续赶超的态势,具有较大发展潜力,但存在分项指标发展不平衡的情况;经济发展水平、基础设施水平、营商环境、前沿技术水平、政治制度、经济制度、法律制度均对数字贸易发展水平具有显著的正向影响,且对OECD国家和非OECD国家的影响具有异质性.
Construction and Influencing Factors Analysis of Digital Trade Development Indicator System:Based on Panel Data of 55 Countries
Measuring the level of digital trade development is the starting point for further research and formulation of digital trade development strategies.Starting from the five dimensions of basic support,trade business,innovation capacity,trade scenario and trade guarantee,this paper constructs a digital trade development indicator system containing 5 primary indicators,11 secondary indicators and 23 tertiary indi-cators to measure digital trade development in 55 countries from 2011 to 2021,and test the influence factors of the level of digital trade development by constructing a regression model.The results show that while the overall level of global digital trade development is increasing there is also a certain trend of differentiation,potentially leading to an exacerbation of developmental disparities among countries;on the whole,the level of digital trade development is significantly higher in developed countries than in developing countries,showing relatively small annual changes and maintaining a stable and high level;China's level of digital trade development has shown a continuous catching-up trend in recent years,demonstrating significant po-tential for further advancement,but there exists an imbalance in the development of sub-indicators;the levels of economic development,infrastructure,business environment and cutting-edge technology,political sys-tem,economic system,and legal system all exert a significant positive impact on the level of digital trade development,and the impact on OECD countries and non-OECD countries is heterogeneous.

digital tradeindicator systemdigital economyinfluencing factorkernel density estimation

高卓琼、张明

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中共中央党校(国家行政学院)

中国社会科学院金融研究所

数字贸易 指标体系 数字经济 影响因素 核密度估计

国家社会科学基金青年项目

22CKS001

2024

国际经济合作
商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院

国际经济合作

CSTPCDCHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:0.789
ISSN:1002-1515
年,卷(期):2024.40(5)
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