Anthropogenic warming is a key ciimate indicator of rising urban fire activity in China

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外文摘要：China,one of the most populous countries in the world,has suffered the highest number of natural disaster-related deaths from fire.On local scales,the main causes of urban fires are anthropogenic in nature.Yet,on regional to national scales,little is known about the indicators of large-scale co-varying urban fire activity in China.Here,we present the China Fire History Atlas(CFHA),which is based on 19 947 documentary records and represents fires in urban areas of China over the twentieth century(1901-1994).We found that temperature variability is a key indicator of urban fire activity in China,with warmer temperatures being correlated with more urban fires,and that this fire-temperature relationship is seasonally and regionally explicit.In the early twentieth century,however,the fire-temperature relationship was overruled by war-related fires in large urban areas.We further used the fire-temperature relationship and multiple emissions scenarios to project fire activity across China into the twenty-first century.Our projections show a distinct increase in future urban fire activity and fire-related economic loss.Our findings provide insights into fire-climate relationships in China for densely-populated areas and on policy-relevant time scales and they contribute spatial coverage to efforts to improve global fire models.

外文关键词：

fire-climate interactionsglobal warmingfire history networkurban firesfire management

作者：

Qichao Yao、Dabang Jiang、Ben Zheng、Xiaochun Wang、Xiaolin Zhu、Keyan Fang、Lamei Shi、Zhou Wang、Yongli Wang、Linhao Zhong、Yanyan Pei、Amy Hudson、Shuai Xu、Maowei Bai、Xinyan Huang、Valerie Trouet

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作者单位：

National Institute of Natural Hazards,Ministry of Emergency Management of China,Beijng 100085,China

Key Laboratory of Sustainable Forest Ecosystem Management-Ministry of Education,School of Forestry,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China

Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research,University of Arizona,Tucson 85721,USA

Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China

Department of Statistics,Colorado State University,Fort Collins 80523,USA

Department of Land Surveying and Geo-Informatics,The Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Hong Kong 999077,China

Key Laboratory of Humid Subtropical Eco-Geographical Process(MOE),College of Geographic Sciences,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350007,China

Department of Building Environment and Energy Engineering,The Hong Kong Polytechnic University,Hong Kong 999077,China

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基金：

国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金国家重点研发计划

项目编号：

32201573323015992022YFC3003000

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.1093/nsr/nwae163

国家科学评论(英文版)

CSTPCD

ISSN：

年,卷(期)：2024.11(5)

参考文献量62