首页|Earlier peak photosynthesis timing potentially escalates global wildfires

Earlier peak photosynthesis timing potentially escalates global wildfires

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More intense fire weather due to climate change is implicated as a key driver of recent extreme wildfire events.As fuel stock,the role of vegetation and its phenology changes in wildfire dynamics,however is not fully appreciated.Using long-term satellite-based burned areas and photosynthesis observations,we reveal that an earlier peak photosynthesis timing(PPT)potentially acts to escalate subsequent wildfires,with an increase in the global average burned fraction of 0.021％(～2.20 Mha)for every additional day of PPT advancement.Satellite observations and Earth System modeling consistently show that this fire escalation is likely due to intensified drought conditions and increased fuel availability associated with the climate feedback arising from earlier PPT.Current fire-enabled dynamic global vegetation models can reproduce the observed negative correlation between PPT and burned area but underestimate the strength of the relationship notably.Given the continued PPT advancement owing to climate change,the bioclimatic effects of vegetation phenology change suggest a potentially pervasive upward pressure on future wildfires.

vegetation photosynthesis phenologywildfireclimate feedbackEarth System model

Gengke Lai、Jialing Li、Jun Wang、Chaoyang Wu、Yongguang Zhang、Constantin M.Zohner、Josep Peñuelas、Quansheng Ge

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International Institute for Earth System Sciences,Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China

Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology,Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources,School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China

The Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China

Huangshan National Park Ecosystem Field Scientific Observ

Department of Environmental Systems Science,Institute of Integrative Biology,ETH Zurich,Zurich 8092,Switzerland

CSIC,Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB,Barcelona 08193,Spain

CREAF,Cerdanyola del Valles,Barcelona 08193,Spain

Jiangsu International Joint Carbon Neutrality Laboratory,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China

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National Key Research and Development Program of ChinaNational Key Research and Development Program of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProgramme of Kezhen-Bingwei Excellent Young Scientists of the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearcSNF AmbizioneTED2021-132627B-I00 grant funded by the Spanish MCINEuropean Union NextGenerationEU/PRTRFundación Ramón Areces projectCatalan government

2019YFA06066032019YFA060660142125105421251012022RC006PZ00P3_193646AEI/10.13039/501100011033CIVP20A6621SGR221-1333

2024

10.1093/nsr/nwae292

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ISSN：
年,卷(期)：2024.11(9)