Global decline in microbial-derived carbon stocks with climate warming and its future projections

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外文摘要：Soil organic carbon(SOC)represents the largest terrestrial pool of organic carbon and is indispensable for mitigating climate change and sustaining soil fertility.As a major component of stable SOC,microbial-derived carbon(MDC)accounts for approximately half of the total SOC and has repercussions on climate feedback.However,our understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of MDC stocks is limited,hindering assessments of the long-term impacts of global warming on persistent SOC sequestration in the soil-atmosphere carbon cycle.Here,we compiled an extensive global dataset and employed ensemble machine learning techniques to forecast the spatial-temporal dynamics of MDC stocks across 93.4％of the total global land area from 1981 to 2018.Our findings revealed that for every 1℃ increase in temperature,there was a global decrease of 6.7 Pg in the soil MDC stock within the predictable areas,equivalent to 1.4％of the total MDC stock or 0.9％of the atmospheric C pool.Tropical regions experienced the most substantial declines in MDC stocks.We further projected future MDC stocks for the next century based on shared socioeconomic pathways,showing a global decline in MDC stocks with a potential 6-37 Pg reduction by 2100 depending on future pathways.We recommend integrating the response of MDC stocks to warming into socioeconomic models to enhance confidence in selecting sustainable pathways.

外文关键词：

stable soil organic carbonmicrobial-derived carbonclimate changeterrestrial carbon cycle

作者：

Yuting Liang、Han Hu、Thomas W.Crowther、Rainer Georg Jörgensen、Chao Liang、Ji Chen、Yishen Sun、Chaoyang Liu、Jixian Ding、Aidi Huang、Jizhong Zhou、Jiabao Zhang

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作者单位：

State Key Laboratory of Soil and Sustainable Agriculture,Institute of Soil Science Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,China

University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China

Department of Environmental Systems Science,ETH Zurich,Zurich 8092,Switzerland

Department of Soil Biology and Plant Nutrition,University of Kassel,Kassel 34117,Germany

Institute of Applied Ecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Shenyang 110016,China

Key Lab of Conservation Tillage and Ecological Agriculture,Shenyang 110016,China

Department of Agroecology,Aarhus University,Tjele 8830,Denmark

Aarhus University Centre for Circular Bioeconomy,Aarhus University,Tjele 8830,Denmark

iCLIMATE Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change,Aarhus University,Roskilde 4000,Denmark

School of Biological Sciences,University of Oklahoma,Norman,OK73019,USA

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出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.1093/nsr/nwae330

国家科学评论(英文版)

CSTPCD

ISSN：

年,卷(期)：2024.11(11)