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跨境电商产业政策对出口开放度的影响:来自合成控制法的证据

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跨境电商作为数字经济时代的一种贸易新业态,是否有助于缓解当前逆全球化背景下中国外循环面临的挑战值得关注.文章以2012 年和2013 年实施的跨境贸易电子商务服务试点作为准实验,运用合成控制法进行了反事实分析,以此来识别跨境电商产业政策对试点城市出口开放度的因果效应,并在此基础上进一步从理论和实证的角度揭示了跨境电商产业政策对试点城市出口开放度的影响机制.研究结果表明,跨境电商产业政策显著促进了试点城市的出口开放度,这一结论通过了一系列稳健性检验;机制分析表明,跨境电商产业政策对试点城市出口开放度的影响主要是通过降低试点城市贸易成本这一渠道产生的.基于上述分析,文章最后针对性地提出了相关政策建议.
The Impact of Cross-Border E-Commerce Industry Policies on Export Openness:Evidence from Synthetic Control Method
It is a vital problem on whether cross-border e-commerce,as a new form of trade in the digital economy era,can help alleviate the challenges faced by China's external circulation in the current context of anti-globalization.This article adopts the synthetic control method for counterfactual analysis to identify the causal effect of cross-border e-commerce industry policies on export openness of pilot cities,using pilot of cross-border trade e-commerce services which was implemented in 2012 and 2013 as natural experiments.Based on which,the im-pact mechanism of cross-border industrial policies on export openness is further revealed from both theoretical and empirical perspectives.The results show that cross-border e-commerce industry policies significantly promote the exports openness of the cities;Mechanism analysis shows that the impact of cross-border e-commerce industry pol-icies on export openness of pilot cities mainly occurs through the channel of reducing trade costs of pilot cities.Based on the above analysis,this article finally proposes targeted policy recommendations.

cross-border e-commerceindustrial policyexports opennesssynthetic control method

王立勇、张晨阳、袁小康

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中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院

中央财经大学统计与数学学院

《经济参考报》报社

跨境电商 产业政策 出口开放度 合成控制法

国家社会科学基金国家自然科学基金面上项目

23VRC04472273161

2024

国际贸易
中国商务出版社

国际贸易

CSSCI北大核心
影响因子:1.284
ISSN:1002-4999
年,卷(期):2024.(3)
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