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中间品再分配与企业出口稳定性

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在外部环境不确定性增强的背景下,出口企业抵御外部需求冲击的能力对于企业的生存和发展以及宏观经济稳定有重要的意义.文章借助投入关联的概念,分析企业在既有行业间重新分配中间投入品的优势以及将既有中间品配置到新行业的潜在优势,并考察其如何影响企业在需求冲击下的出口稳定性.研究发现,企业在既有行业间重新分配中间品的优势会增强企业既有出口行业抵御负向冲击的能力,且便于企业调整出口结构,具备更强的恢复能力.企业将既有中间品部署于新行业的潜在优势会使得企业在面对需求结构冲击时,转向新行业产品出口,淘汰部分既有产能,优化出口结构以适应新的需求市场,从而抵御需求冲击对企业出口状态和出口规模的负向影响.
Reallocation of Intermediate Inputs and Export Stability
In the context of escalating external uncertainty,the stability of exporting firms in the face of exoge-nous demand shocks is pivotal for their own survival and growth,as well as for macroeconomic stability. This pa-per employs the concept of input linkages to analyze firms' advantages of reallocating intermediate inputs among ex-isting industries and their potential advantages of reallocating existing intermediate inputs to new industries,and in-vestigates how they impact the export stability of firms when faced with demand shocks. The results uncover that the advantages of input reallocation among existing industries enhance the resilience of these industries to negative shocks. It also enables firms to adjust their industry structure of export and recover faster. The potential advantages of input reallocation empower firms to shift their export focus towards new industry products,eliminate a portion of their existing capacity,optimize their export structure to accommodate new demand markets,and thereby alleviate the negative influence of demand shocks on their export status and scale.

demand shocksexport stabilityinput linkagesinput reallocation

李志远、林怡纯

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复旦大学经济学院

上海国际金融与经济研究院

需求冲击 出口稳定性 投入关联 中间品分配

2024

国际贸易
中国商务出版社

国际贸易

CSSCI北大核心
影响因子:1.284
ISSN:1002-4999
年,卷(期):2024.(11)