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宝应湖水质时空变化特征及原因分析

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基于宝应湖2014-2023 年逐月水质监测数据,采用经典统计法、最不利值法、ArcGIS空间插值法和距平系数法,分析宝应湖水质时空分布特征及原因.结果表明,宝应湖氮磷污染负荷较为严重,TN和TP是最重要的控制因子,年内水质较差时间段多出现在汛期;2014-2023 年TN、TP年均值质量浓度均呈上升趋势,最不利值相对更易出现在汛期排涝期间,且汛期质量浓度值总体高于非汛期;全湖区水质北区和东区相对较好,西区水质因子质量浓度偏高,综合水质相对较差,需重点控制氮磷污染;入湖河道水体、地表径流面源污染、汛期行洪排涝、湖区水产养殖及底泥内源释放等是宝应湖污染负荷的主要来源.研究结果可为宝应湖水质改善和水环境保护提供科学依据.
Analysis of the Spatial-temporal Variation Characteristics and Causes of Water Quality in Baoying Lake
Based on monthly water quality monitoring data from 2014 to 2023 for Baoying Lake,the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and causes of water quality in Baoying Lake were analyzed using classical statistical methods,the worst-case scenario method,ArcGIS spatial interpolation,and the anomaly coefficient method.The results indicate that nitrogen and phosphorus pollution loads are relatively severe in Baoying Lake,with total nitrogen(TN)and total phosphorus(TP)being the most critical controlling factors.Poor water quality periods tend to occur during the flood season within the year.From 2014 to 2023,the annual average concentrations of TN and TP showed an upward trend,with the worst-case values more likely to occur during flood discharge periods in the rainy season.Overall,concentration levels during the flood season were higher than those in non-flood seasons.In terms of spatial distribution,water quality in the northern and eastern areas of the lake was relatively better,while the western area had higher concentrations of water quality factors,resulting in relatively poorer overall water quality.Therefore,it is essential to focus on controlling nitrogen and phosphorus pollution in these areas.The main sources of pollution load in Baoying Lake include inflowing rivers,surface runoff,flood season discharge,aquaculture in the lake area,and internal release from lake sediments.These findings provide a scientific basis for the improvement of water quality and environmental protection of Baoying Lake.

water qualityspatial-temporal variationworst-case scenario methodArcGIS interpolation methodBaoying Lake

刘伟、刘平

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江苏省水文水资源勘测局淮安分局,江苏 淮安 223001

江苏省水文水资源勘测局扬州分局,江苏 扬州 225002

水质 时空变化 最不利值法 ArcGIS插值分析 宝应湖

2025

水资源开发与管理
水利部沙棘开发管理中心

水资源开发与管理

影响因子:0.173
ISSN:1672-4836
年,卷(期):2025.11(1)