International crude oil price trends in the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first half of 2025
In the fourth quarter of 2024,global oil demand will decline seasonally,while global oil supplies continue to rise,making global oil market ease.International oil price will have the pressure and the volatility center of gravity of crude oil prices is lower than in the third quarter,and the average price of Brent crude oil would be $70～75/barrel.It is expected that in the first half of 2025,the new president of the United States may influence the global political and economic pattern,while the production policy of the OPEC+group will determine the pace of supply increase,leading to the bigger instability and certainty.Under the baseline scenario,the optimistic scenario,and the pessimistic scenario,Brent oil prices in the first half of 2025 are expected to fluctuate in the range of US$70-80/barrel,US$75-85/barrel,and US$65-75/barrel,respectively.
Brent oil priceoil supply and demandthe geopolitical situationeconomic situation
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