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新型能源体系下中国气电发展SWOT分析及建议

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与传统煤电相比,气电具有清洁低碳、可调节、易启停、稳定高效等特点。尽管当下受到资源禀赋、经济性等因素制约,气电在中国的发展相对迟缓,然而在能源转型以及电力系统重塑的大背景下,作为技术成熟、应用广泛且启停灵活的支撑性电源,气电必将在未来一定时期内扮演着能源转型的"桥梁"角色,也是经济发达地区提供电力电量支撑、保障电力供应安全平稳的现实抉择。天然气资源供给及价格决定了气电的未来。气电行业可以紧抓国家清洁低碳政策驱动能源转型的战略机遇期,充分发挥自身优势,统筹解决长期制约气电发展的资源供给、燃气价格偏高的关键问题,切实降低气电运行成本,提高行业市场竞争力。从长远看,天然气价格有望逐步降至合理区间,气电行业将迎来更加广阔的发展空间。燃料多元化将成为推动气电行业实现革命性突破的关键力量,它不仅为气电领域增添了更丰富的能源选择,也为解决能源可持续发展提供了新的思路。
SWOT analysis of China's gas-fired power development under the new energy system
Compared to traditional coal-fired power,gas-fired power has the characteristics of being clean and low-carbon,adjustable,easy to start and stop,stable and efficient.Constrained by factors such as resource endowment and economic viability,the development of gas-fired power in China has been relatively slow.However,against the backdrop of energy transition and the reshaping of the power system,as a mature technology with wide application and flexible start-stop capabilities,gas-fired power will play the role of a"bridge"in energy transition for a certain period in the future.It is also a practical choice for economically developed regions to provide power and electricity support and to ensure the safe and stable supply of electricity.The supply and price of natural gas resources determine the future of gas-fired power.The gas-fired power industry can seize the strategic opportunity driven by national clean and low-carbon policies to promote energy transition,fully leverage its own advantages,and coordinate to solve the key issues of resource supply and high gas prices that have long constrained the development of gas-fired power,effectively reducing the operating costs of gas-fired power and enhancing the competitiveness of the industry in the market.In the long run,natural gas prices are expected to gradually fall into a reasonable range,and the gas-fired power industry will usher in a broader development space.Diversification of fuels will become a key force in promoting a revolutionary breakthrough in the gas-fired power industry.It not only brings richer energy choices to the gas-fired power field but also provides new ideas for sustainable energy development.

new energy systemnatural gas power generationclean and low-carbonhigh-quality development

项卫东、师建光、彭祥、骆愈龙、扈静

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中国石油天然气股份有限公司天然气销售分公司

华北石油管理局总医院

国家电力投资集团有限公司

新型能源体系 天然气发电 清洁低碳 经济性 调峰保供

2024

国际石油经济
中国石油学会石油经济专业委员会,中国石油集团经济技术研究院,中国石油规划总院

国际石油经济

CSTPCDCHSSCD
影响因子:0.777
ISSN:1004-7298
年,卷(期):2024.32(12)