Analysis of the development trend of China's gasoline and diesel market demand
After analyzing the short-,medium-and long-term factors affecting China's gasoline demand,the paper predicts that 2024 will be the first year after gasoline demand peaks and gasoline demand will drop by 1.8%compared with the previous year,the rate of decline will accelerate during the 15th Five-Year Plan period and the actual demand will drop by 27.8%in 2030 compared with that in 2023 with an average annual decline of 4.5%,the rate of decline in gasoline demand will be faster in the south than in the north in the short term and slower in the south than in the north in the long term.After analyzing those factors of China's diesel fuel demand,it forecasts that the diesel fuel demand will decrease by 5.9%in 2024 compared with that of the previous year;it will decrease by 27.2%in 2030 compared with that of 2023 and the demand for diesel fuel will be in the condition that the decrease in the north will be faster than that in the south in the long-term.It is recommended that market players make such following key adjustments to the analysis of the diesel oil market as adjusting the previous industry evaluation and analysis background of"upward or stable cycle"to"stable cycle with appropriate downward fluctuation",developing markets by different region and stage according to their characteristics,and increasing the weights of index of new energy,non-oil businesses,and digital transformation.
gasoline and diesel marketgasoline demanddiesel demandrefined oil substitutiondemand forecast
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
