首页|大趋势与小周期作用下的中美关系

大趋势与小周期作用下的中美关系

扫码查看
当下中美关系的演变既受到大趋势的影响,又受到小周期的作用.从 2023 下半年开始,中美关系进入一个以加强对话与交流、谋求稳定与缓和为特征的小周期.拜登政府对华政策出现小幅调整,加强接触和交往,在经贸问题上采取较为务实的态度,调整对华政策定位;中国对美政策在坚持斗争的同时,也根据形势变化引导与塑造美国对华政策.旧金山元首会晤对推动两国关系的目标管理与过程管理具有重要意义,确立了构建稳定、健康、可持续中美关系的阶段性目标,并在管控分歧的基础上推动合作重返双边关系议程,有助于界定中美博弈的边界.中美关系的未来走向取决于美国能否务实确定其对华政策的目标,及在经贸与安全领域对华竞争的合理边界.中国处理对美关系,既要立足大趋势,又要用好小周期.
China-US Relations under the Great Trend and Small Cycles
The evolution of the current relations between China and the United States is influenced by the trajectory of the great trend but is also subject to the dynamics of small cycles.From the second half of 2023 onward,China-US relations have entered a small cycle featuring strengthened dialogue and communication as well as the pursuit of stability and mitigation of tensions.The Biden administration's China policy has witnessed minor adjustments,with more focus on engagement and exchanges,a more pragmatic attitude on economic and trade issues,and an increasing emphasis on cooperation,coexistence,and conflict prevention.On the other hand,while persisting in the struggle against American moves that undermine its sovereignty,security,and development interests,China has worked to influence and shape the United States'China policy in accordance with evolving circumstances.The China-US leaders'meeting in San Francisco is significant in advancing the management of goals and processes in bilateral relations.An objective for the current stage was set to build a stable,healthy,and sustainable China-US relationship,and cooperation was back on the bilateral agenda besides the management of disputes,which would be conducive to defining the boundary of China-US competition.The future direction of China-US relations depends on whether the US can pragmatically locate the objectives of its China policy,and whether a reasonable boundary for competition with China in the economic and trade sphere can be drawn.In handling its relations with the US,China needs to base its policy on the great trend and take advantage of small cycles.

吴心伯

展开 >

复旦大学美国研究中心

中美关系 大趋势 小周期 美国对华政策

教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目

17JJDGJW002

2024

国际问题研究
中国国际问题研究所

国际问题研究

CSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.746
ISSN:0452-8832
年,卷(期):2024.(2)