基于SARIMAX模型的城市轨道交通客流预测
Forecasting of Passenger Flow in Urban Rail Transit Based on SARIMAX Model
王潇骁 1顾嘉辉 1李悦溪2
作者信息
- 1. 上海申通地铁集团有限公司 上海 201103
- 2. 上海仪电物联技术股份有限公司 上海 200233
- 折叠
摘要
本文基于上海城市轨道交通一号线的月度客流数据,分析其周期性、季节性、非平稳性等时序特性,研究国内节假日因素引发的影响,选用引入春节等节假日外部变量因素的SARIMAX模型对月度客流进行预测,并将预测结果与SARIMA模型进行对比,得出SARIMAX模型预测效果良好,适用于城市轨道交通月度客流的预测,可为制定实际运营计划提供参考建议.
Abstract
Based on the monthly passenger flow data of Shanghai Metro Line 1,this paper analyzes its time series characteristics such as periodicity,seasonality,and non-stationarity,and studies the impact caused by domestic holiday factors.SARIMAX model,which introduces external variables such as the Spring Festival and other holidays,is selected to forecast the monthly passenger flow.This indicates that the proposed SARIMAX model has good prediction performance and is suitable for forecasting monthly passenger flow in urban rail transit,providing reference for formulating practical operation plans.
关键词
城市轨道交通/客流预测/SARIMAX模型/月度客流Key words
Urban Rail Transit/Passenger Flow Forecasting/SARIMAX Model/Monthly Passenger Flow引用本文复制引用
基金项目
上海申通地铁集团有限公司国资委项目(2022016)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据