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基于敏感性分析的改扩建高速公路安全性评价

Safety Evaluation of Reconstructed and Widened Expressway Based on Sensitivity Analysis

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随着我国高速公路建设事业的快速发展,不少高速公路先期建成路段由于设计标准较低、超大中修期服役等原因,已经无法适应目前大交通量的需求,面临着改扩建等问题.阐述了敏感性分析理论,采用敏感性分析,找出影响改扩建高速公路的敏感因素.然后分别从影响交通安全的风险因子发生概率、严重程度两个方面进行单因素敏感性分析和多因素敏感性综合分析,根据分析结果采用模糊综合评价方法对改扩建高速公路的安全性进行评价.针对分析出的改扩建高速公路的风险因子的敏感性大小提出相应的优化措施,为改扩建高速公路的优化设计提供指导性帮助.
With the rapid development of highway construction in China,many expressways with lower design standards and lack of maintenance have been unable to satisfy the demand of traffic volume,which may need to be reconstructed and widened.This paper describes the sensitivity analysis theory to find out the sensitive factors affecting the widening of expressway.Then from the aspects of the probability and severity of risk factors which could influence the traffic safety,single factor and multi factors sensitivity analysis are made,and based on the results of the analysis by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the safety of highway widening is evaluated.Corresponding optimization measures are proposed in light of the degree of risk factors sensitivity which can provide guidance for optimization design of expressway widening.

expresswayreconstruction and wideningsafety evaluationsensitivity analysis

刘维民

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湖南省怀通高速公路建设开发有限公司 怀化市418116

高速公路 改扩建 安全性评价 敏感性分析

2015

公路
中国交通建设集团有限公司

公路

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.54
ISSN:0451-0712
年,卷(期):2015.60(2)
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