Energy storage power station and traditional energy carbon emission reduction investment decision of power group under the background of dual carbon goal
As an industry with the highest proportion of carbon emissions,the power industry urgently needs to significantly reduce carbon emission levels through energy structure adjustments to effectively support the realization of China's dual carbon goals.The key to energy structure adjustment is to reduce the carbon emission levels of thermal power generation in two ways.The first is to increase the proportion of renewable energy sources dominating the power structure.The second is to reduce the carbon emission intensity of thermal power generation through a carbon emission reduction investment(carbon capture,utilization,and storage investment,referred to as CCUS investment).However,increasing the installed scale of renewable energy sources increases the difficulty of peak regulation.Investing in energy storage power stations is a feasible method for solving the problem of peak shaving in renewable energy.Therefore,for hybrid power groups with both renewable energy generation and thermal power units,there is an urgent need to promote the adjustment of the energy structure by investing in energy storage power stations and CCUS units.Therefore,in the framework of time-of-use pricing,this study considers two scenarios in which wind power is intermittent and there are random fluctuations in power demand during peak periods,introduces the dual carbon goal constraint of energy replacement,designs four investment strategy combinations according to whether power groups invest in energy storage power stations or CCUS units,and constructs an investment decision-making model of the corresponding energy storage power station or CCUS units.This study can reference power group optimal investment capacity decisions and investment strategy combination selections.This study determined the optimal capacity levels of energy storage power stations,or CCUS units,under different strategy combinations for the investment decision model.It discusses the relationship between the optimal capacity and the essential parameters.The study finds that:first,each investment strategy combination has an optimal capacity level,but it requires that the unit investment cost of the energy storage station and CCUS unit and the unit operating cost of the CCUS unit not exceed the net carbon emission cost saving amount,and the optimal capacity is affected by the constraint of the proportion of fossil energy consumption.Second,increasing the carbon price and reducing the difference in peak-valley electricity prices(daytime electricity prices or demand price sensitivity coefficients)will increase the optimal investment capacity of the energy storage station and CCUS unit.By contrast,higher thermal power generation and CCUS unit operating costs reduce the optimal capacity of the CCUS unit.Increasing the probability of full-load power generation during the day simultaneously reduces the optimal investment capacity of the energy storage station and CCUS unit.However,the influence of nighttime probability on the two is different.The threshold emission reduction intensity maximizes the optimal capacity of the CCUS unit.Investment in an energy storage power station reduces the threshold of emission reduction intensity and produces emission reduction extrusion effects on CCUS units.Using case and numerical analysis methods,we separately compared the differences in profit and carbon emission levels between different investment strategy combinations for different parameter combinations.We found that:first,except for the lower carbon price and higher unit operating cost of CCUS units,the co-investment(ST)strategy is always the optimal investment strategy under profit maximization.Second,when the peak-to-valley electricity price difference and demand price sensitivity coefficient are both high,the carbon price and unit operating cost of the CCUS unit change in the same direction,and the unit investment costs of the energy storage power station and CCUS differ significantly.The carbon emission levels of the power group under the NT,SN,and NT(SN)strategies were the lowest.The power group had the lowest carbon emission level under the ST strategy.Third,optimal strategies for maximizing profits and minimizing carbon emissions must be more consistent.Therefore,power groups must make trade-offs when making investment decisions.Based on the above findings,the following management implications are proposed to help with the energy structure adjustment of the power group.First,the government should increase its support for energy storage and CCUS technology research,actively implement the time-of-use electricity pricing policy,and introduce subsidies and preferential tax policies for energy storage power stations or CCUS unit projects.Second,power groups should increase their research efforts in energy storage and CCUS technology by actively uniting key nodes in the supply chain,improving enterprise management levels to reduce project operation costs,and comprehensively considering the carbon price level,investment intensity,and other factors to make scientific investment decisions for energy storage power stations and CCUS units.
Capacity decisionEnergy storageCCUS unitsDual carbon goalPower group
万方数据
维普
