Study on Accident Characteristics and Scenarios of Long-distance Passenger Line over 800 km
In order to reduce the accident potential of long-distance passenger line over 800 km and improve the ability of enterprise safety prevention and control.The typical characteristics of the accident on the passenger line over 800 km are studied and analyzed,and the important scenarios of the accident are constructed as well.Based on the data of road traffic accidents on the passenger lines over 800 km from 2014 to 2020,the cause analysis and accident-prone scenarios are studied.Based on people,roads and environment,the key features are selected to construct the accident characteristic indicator system.The security risk model is constructed by using decision tree model,the potential relationship between the key factors of the system(such as running time,human factors,weather conditions,seasons,accident areas,road alignment,road surface conditions,holidays,spring festival transportation,highway technical grade,highway administration,etc.)and the accident patterns(such as overturn,scratch,collision,collision with fixed object,rear-end collision,vehicle falling,etc.)is explored.The characteristics and forms of human,road and environment factors in the traffic system are dissected when the accident occurs,and then the accident-prone situation of the passenger line over 800 km is constructed.The result shows that(1)the running time,human factors and weather conditions are the key factors affecting the accident of passenger line over 800 km,and there are multiple coupling relations with season,accident area,road alignment,road surface condition and so on;(2)holiday,Spring Festival transportation,highway technical grade and highway administrative grade are not the key factors affecting the accident of passenger line over 800 km.The study provides a theoretical basis for reducing the accident potential of the passenger line over 800 km and for the safety prevention and control of enterprises.In the future,road transport management departments and road transport enterprises should strengthen safety management,standardize the safe driving behavior of drivers,and popularize the defensive driving knowledge under accident-prone situations.
traffic safetyaccident characteristics and scenariosdecision tree modellong-distance passenger line over 800 kmaccident cause analysis
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
