首页|考虑新机场投运的多式联运组织演化博弈——以北京大兴国际机场为例

考虑新机场投运的多式联运组织演化博弈——以北京大兴国际机场为例

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为迎合市场需求,激发北京市新机场及周边企业运输潜力,发展多式联运并合理调动运输供给资源成为关键.通过建立航空运输企业、公路运输企业及多式联运经营人三方演化博弈模型,对各参与方组建多式联运组织的策略、选择演化路径及合作机制进行研究.各参与方在成本投入与可获得的额外收益之间权衡,决策是否选择组成联运组织.研究过程中设置合作意愿,对多式联运组织各参与方策略选择的演化路径进行仿真分析,并分别改变业务规模系数、运输收益系数及新市场损失系数,就各参与方行为对其策略选择的演化结果进行分析.结果表明:各参与主体初始意愿的变化对多式联运组织的建立和有效运营产生直接影响,即运输企业对合作策略的初始意愿是多式联运组织形成的关键;经营人企业的行为策略选择也将影响航空运输企业和公路运输企业的成本付出与新市场带来的额外收益获得,组织内部因素(例如合理收益分配)有助于促进多式联运组织有效形成;组织业务规模、市场发展状况变化等外部环境因素也对多式联运组织成员的意愿值有所影响,即不同运输企业行为会影响经营人企业的经营态度,也将作用于组织的演化方向及到达均衡状态的演化时间.
Evolutionary Game for Multimodal Transport Organization Considering New Airport Operation:Taking Beijing Daxing International Airport for an Example
To meet the market demand and stimulate the transport potential of new airport and surrounding enterprises in Beijing,the key is to develop multimodal transport,and rationally mobilize transport supply resources.The tripartite evolutionary game model of air transport enterprises,road transport enterprises and multimodal transport operators is established,and the evolution path of strategic choice and cooperation mechanism of each participant in the formation of multimodal transport organizations are studied.The cost input and additional benefits that can be obtained are weighed by the participants,who decide whether to choose to form an intermodal organization.In the research process,the intention of cooperation is set.The evolution path of strategy selection of each participant in the multimodal transport organization is simulated and analyzed.The business scale coefficient,transportation income coefficient,and new market loss coefficient are changed respectively.The evolution result of participants'behavior on their strategy selection are analyzed.The result indicates that the change of initial willingness of participants has a direct influence on the establishment and effective operation of multimodal transport organization,i.e.,the initial willingness of transport enterprises to the cooperation strategy is the key to the formation of multimodal transport organization.The operator's choice of behavior strategy will also affect the cost of both transportation enterprises and additional income brought by new market.Internal factors(e.g.,reasonable income distribution)help to promote the effective formation of multimodal transportation organizations.External environmental factors(e.g.,business scale and changes in market development status)also have influence on the willingness value of multimodal transport organization members,i.e.different behaviors of transport enterprises will affect operator's business attitude,and will also affect the evolution direction of organization and the evolution time to reach the equilibrium state.

transportation economicsmultimodal transport organization cooperation mechanismtripartite evolutionary gameair transport enterprisehighway transport enterprise

王晓平、吴雅婷、陈佳慧

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北京物资学院 物流学院,北京 101149

运输经济 多式联运组织合作机制 三方演化博弈 航空运输企业 公路运输企业

北京市教委社会科学研究项目

SM202010037008

2024

公路交通科技
交通运输部公路科学研究院

公路交通科技

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:1.007
ISSN:1002-0268
年,卷(期):2024.41(5)
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