Study on Vulnerability Evaluation of Conventional Bus Operation and Departure Optimization
Aiming at the fact that the share rate of conventional public transport in urban public transport has been declining year by year,and comprehensively considering the travel perception of passengers and the cost of bus operation,in order to quantify the vulnerability of conventional bus operation routes and improve service quality,a vulnerability evaluation method for conventional bus operation and the bus departure interval optimization based on vulnerability assessment are proposed.First,15 vulnerability factors are extracted from 4 aspects,including human activities,operational organization management,environmental status and vehicle status by using the literature extraction method.The relationship among the influence degrees of the factors is classified by the 3 characteristics of exposure,sensitivity and adaptability of the vulnerable factors,and the 2 key vulnerable factors,in-vehicle congestion degree and waiting time are obtained by using the intersection method.Secondly,from the perspective of passenger perception and psychological change characteristics in different passenger flow periods,the classification of in-vehicle congestion and the normal distribution curve of waiting time are analyzed to determine the critical division of congestion and the waiting tolerance time of 85%of passengers as the tolerance threshold.Further,based on the key vulnerability factors and their tolerance thresholds,the operating company cost and passenger cost function models with departure time as a variable during peak,sub-peak and peak periods are constructed,and the genetic algorithm is used to solve the problem.Finally,combined with the case analysis of bus line No.23 in Kunming,the result shows that the exposure,sensitivity and fitness of the optimized operation line during peak hours reduce by 39.10%,26.75%and 35.74%respectively,and the vulnerability reduces by 33.88%,the optimization effect is the best,the second peak is in the middle,and the flat peak is poor.Due to the overall analysis,the evaluation model and optimization method have good practicability,the passenger travel perception service level is improved,and the operating cost is reduced.
ITSvulnerability assessmentimproved ISMconventional bus operationdeparture interval optimizationgenetic algorithm
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
