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考虑决策偏好的城市群应急协调超网络模型

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针对跨城市灾害或单个城市资源紧缺的情况,提出由出救点、中转点和受灾点构成的多层级城市群应急协调超网络模型.考虑应急响应时间和成本等因素,确立模型的整体优化目标;运用随机均衡配流理论,研究决策偏好下多种应急调配方式的随机选择问题;分别将优化目标和应急方式的随机选择转化成等价的变分不等式形式;设计数值算例求解并仿真分析,验证模型的合理性和有效性,并对关键参数讨论其决策指导意义.
Super-network model of urban agglomeration emergency coordination considering decision preferences
A multi-tiered urban agglomeration emergency super-network model,constituted by retrieval depots,transit points and disaster-affected areas,is proposed in this paper against intercity disaster or resource limitation in a single city.The system-optimization goal of the model is established in terms of emergency time and cost.Stochastic choice in multiple emergency modes is studied based upon the stochastic user equilibrium assignment theory.The optimization goal and the stochastic choice problem are transformed into equivalent variation inequalities,respectively.By performing a numerical simulation and a computational solution,the feasibility and effectiveness of the model are demonstrated,in which key factors are analyzed for the decisionmaking practice.

emergencycoordinationurban agglomerationstochastic choicevariational inequality

曹杰、朱莉

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南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044

南京信息工程大学经济管理学院,南京210044

应急 协调 城市群 随机选择 变分不等式

国家自然科学基金资助项目国家自然科学基金资助项目公益性行业(气象)科研专项资助项目国家科技部软科学资助项目

7110107371273139GYHY2011060192010GXS5B147

2014

管理科学学报
天津大学 国家自然科学基金委员会管理科学部

管理科学学报

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.573
ISSN:1007-9807
年,卷(期):2014.17(11)
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