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基于混合多项式模型的韶山红色旅游需求人数预测

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基于三次和四次多项式拟合模型。针对韶山红色旅游景区旅游需求人数预测问题,提出了混合多项式拟合预测模型.该模型可以解决信息呈递增趋势的问题,结果具有一定的可信度.将该模型与灰色预测模型GM(1,1)进行比较,结果表明,混合多项式拟合预测模型的平均相对误差明显要低于GM(1,1)模型,且计算代价更小.
Red Tourism Demand Forecasting of Shaoshan Scenic Area Based on the Mixed Polynomial Fitted Model
Based on cubic and quartic polynomial fitted models, the mixed polynomial fitted model is presented for red tourism demand forecasting in Shaoshan scenic area. The model can be used to solve problems of which information is with the trend of increasing, and the conclusion is with some extent of credibility. By comparison with GM (1, 1) model, it is shown in the result that the average relative error of the mixed polynomial fitted model is significantly smaller and more over its cost of computing is lower.

mixed polynomialred tourismShaoshan tourism scenic areaforecast

李少游、程丹、刘利斌

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桂林理工大学旅游学院,广西桂林541004

池州学院数学计算机科学系,安徽池州247000

混合多项式 红色旅游 韶山旅游景区 预测

广西研究生教育创新计划安徽省高等学校自然科学基金

2011105961202M42K]20118112

2012

桂林旅游高等专科学校学报
桂林旅游高等专科学校

桂林旅游高等专科学校学报

影响因子:0.735
ISSN:1008-6080
年,卷(期):2012.5(1)