Measurement and Evolution Analysis of China's Economic Dual Circulation Pattern from a Provincial Perspective
This paper divides,by the final demand source channel,the domestic and international dual circulation into four parts:intra-provincial circulation,inter-provincial circulation,foreign circulation and interactive circulation.Then,based on the input-output model,this paper constructs measurement indicators for the dual circulation pattern at the provincial level in China to systematically analyze the circular structure characteristics and evolution trends of each province from 1987 to 2017,and clarify the performance characteristics of the new development pattern at the provincial level.The research above reaches four conclusions.Firstly,intra-provincial circulation ac-counts for a declining percentage,but still has an important impact on the economy,especially in regions with a large population and a relatively complete industrial system,where the economic role of intra-provincial circulation is more prominent.Secondly,with the im-provement of domestic infrastructure and the refinement of regional division of labor,the share of inter-provincial circulation has signifi-cantly increased,and the economic benefits of inter-provincial circulation are more dispersed in space,benefiting more provinces.Third-ly,the overall trend of international circulation is characterized by an upward trend followed by a downward trend.After 2008,the exter-nal environment has changed,and the driving force of the international market on the economy of various provinces has slowed down,re-sulting in a decrease in the overall proportion of international circulation.Fourthly,the domestic and international interaction cycle shows a fluctuating upward trend.In recent years,with the deepening of openness and industrial upgrading,the proportion of processing trade has gradually decreased,and the production that requires internal and external coordination and division of labor cooperation is increas-ing.The connection between domestic circulation and international circulation is becoming increasingly close.
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