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互联网技术对制造业企业生存风险影响研究

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随着互联网技术浪潮来袭,制造业正处于加速向互联网化变革的关键时期,互联网技术成为推动企业生存与发展的核心力量.本文基于工业企业数据库与海关数据库匹配后的大样本微观数据,首先,通过描述性统计发现,互联网化企业平均生存时间为3.13 年,非互联网化企业平均生存时间为2.72 年,且前者在4～6 年及7 年以上生存时间组占比明显高于后者.然后采用KM生存分析发现,非互联网化企业相较于互联网化企业具有更高的生存风险.其次,采用倾向得分匹配法(PSM)、Cox生存分析模型以及Oaxaca-RIF分解模型实证发现:(1)互联网技术可以明显降低制造业企业生存风险.从异质性检验结果看,互联网技术对于降低国有企业、中等规模企业、非出口企业、中部地区企业以及劳动密集型企业生存风险的作用更大.(2)通过企业生存时间差距的贡献分析发现,无论是特征效应还是系数效应,互联网技术对于高分位企业影响更大.从整个生存时间分布来看,企业应用互联网技术可以在一定程度上消除不同地区生存时间存在的差异影响.本文研究结论为进一步推动制造业企业互联网化进程,助力企业生存发展提供了重要理论与参考依据.
Impact of Internet Technology Application on Survival Risk of Manufacturing Enterprises
With the advent of Internet technology,the manufacturing industry is in a critical period of accelerating the transformation to the Internet,and Internet technology has become a core force underlying the survival and development of enterprises.This paper is based on a large sample of micro data generated by matching industrial enterprise databases and customs databases.Firstly,a KM survival anal-ysis finds that the average survival time of Internet-based companies is 3.13 years,the average survival time of non-Internet-based com-panies is 2.72 years,and the proportion of the former in 4～6 years and more than 7 years survival time group is significantly higher than that of the latter.Secondly,an empirical analysis based on propensity score matching method(PSM),Cox survival analysis model and Oaxaca-RIF decomposition model reaches the following conclusions.(1)Internet technology can significantly reduce the survival risk of manufacturing enterprises.A heterogeneity test shows that Internet technology has a greater effect in reducing the survival risk of state-owned enterprises,medium-sized enterprises,non-export enterprises,enterprises in the central region,and labor-intensive enterprises.(2)Through an analysis of the gap contribution of the survival time of enterprises,it is found that,regardless of the characteristic effect or the coefficient effect,Internet technology has a greater impact on high-quantile enterprises.From the perspective of the overall survival time distribution,the application of Internet technology by enterprises can eliminate the impact of differences in survival time in different regions to a certain extent.The research conclusions of this paper provide an important theoretical reference basis for manufacturing enter-prises to survive and develop by taking advantage of Internet.

Internet technologyenterprise survivalPSMCox survival analysisOaxaca-RIF decomposition

王昱、姜博川、武玮

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大连理工大学商学院,大连 116024

互联网技术 企业生存 PSM Cox生存分析 Oaxaca-RIF分解

国家社会科学基金中国博士后科学基金辽宁省软科学研究计划辽宁省经济社会发展研究项目中央高校基本科研业务费专项

19CJL0322020M6809582023JH4/106000092023lslqnkt-014DUT22RW120

2024

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中国科学院研究生院

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CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.801
ISSN：1003-1952
年,卷(期)：2024.36(1)
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