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复杂关联情境下城市关键基础设施运行风险演化机理研究

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明晰城市关键基础设施运行风险演化机理是有效防范和化解风险的前提与基础,而现实中动态变化的多风险、多系统以及多风险关联和多系统关联叠加形成的复杂关联情境加大了机理研究的难度.本文从复杂关联情境着手,分别分析了多风险关联和多系统关联的演化机理.然后,利用系统动力学模型,构建了城市关键基础设施运行风险演化仿真模型,并设计了三个针对性的仿真实验.仿真结果表明,影响城市关键基础设施运行的风险因素呈现动态演化性,在不同的时间节点应关注的风险因素有明显差异;风险因素在多系统层面的叠加作用将扩大风险损失,且随着系统关联强度的增加,系统失效率会进一步加大;系统关联强度的不同将影响风险应对策略的恢复效率.研究成果将为城市关键基础设施相关监管部门管理者直观识别复杂关联情境下多风险的动态演化路径、科学研判影响多系统运行的关键风险因素,以及制定风险应对策略提供重要的决策依据.
Research on the Risk Evolutionary Mechanism of Critical Infrastructures in Complex Interdependent Scenarios
Clarifying the risk evolutionary mechanism of critical infrastructures is vital to preventing risks and mitigating the huge losses they may induce.However,the situation is extremely complex due to its nature of multiple risks,multiple systems,and their dynamically evolving interdependency.Hence,this paper firstly investigates the complex interdependency scenarios,and analyzes the respective evo-lutionary mechanism of multiple risks and multiple systems.Based on the analysis,it constructs a system dynamics model to demonstrate the risk evolutionary behaviors in critical infrastructures,and designs three targeted simulation experiments.By setting different interde-pendent scenarios,the comprehensive evolutionary mechanism from major risk factors to the overall critical infrastructure systems can be identified.Simulation results show that the risk factors affecting the operation of critical infrastructures are dynamically evolving,and the relevant regulatory authorities should pay attention to different risk factors at different stages;the interactive effects of multiple risks will induce more losses to multiple systems,and higher interdependency between systems will expand the loss;the different strength of sys-tem interdependence will affect the recovery efficiency of risk response strategies.This paper provides important scientific evidence for the relevant regulatory authorities of critical infrastructures to intuitively identify the dynamic evolutionary path of multiple risks under com-plex interdependent scenarios,clarify the key risk factors affecting the operation of multiple systems,and formulate risk response strate-gies.

critical infrastructuresrisk evolutionary mechanismcomplex interdependent scenariosystem dynamics

王林、索玮岚

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东华大学旭日工商管理学院,上海 200051

中国科学院科技战略咨询研究院,北京 100190

城市关键基础设施 风险演化机理 复杂关联情境 系统动力学

教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金国家自然科学基金面上项目上海市"科技创新行动计划"启明星项目扬帆专项中央高校基本科研业务费专项

22YJC6301377207420722YF14016002232022E-04

2024

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中国科学院研究生院

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CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.801
ISSN：1003-1952
年,卷(期)：2024.36(1)
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