Herding or Boldness?The Uncertainty and the Analysts'Herding Behavior from a Risk Perception Perspective
This paper investigates the impact of economic uncertainty on analysts'herding behavior.In order to explore potential asym-metry effects in this relationship,we examine the impact of both domestic and international uncertainty levels on herding behavior,con-sidering analysts'risk perception.The results show that domestic uncertainty induces analysts'herding behavior due to higher risk per-ception,while international uncertainty induces analysts'brave behavior due to lower risk perception.Further tests find that the relation-ship between uncertainty and analysts'herding behavior is not caused by differences in actual business risks,but rather by differences in psychological perception levels.Analyst site visits do not affect the relationship between uncertainty and herding behavior,excluding the possibility of pseudo herding.Cross-sectional heterogeneity tests find that the proportion of foreign revenue intensifies analysts'brave forecasting behavior under the influence of international uncertainty;star analysts inhibit herding forecasting behavior under domestic un-certainty;and female analysts exhibit a diminished tendency either for herding forecasting behavior under domestic uncertainty or for brave forecasting behavior under international uncertainty.This study expands our understanding of the economic consequences of an un-certain environment by focusing on analysts'behavior.By examining variations in analysts'behavior under different levels of risk per-ception from a geographical perspective,we provide a novel research perspective and empirical evidence for the causes of analysts'her-ding behavior.
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