Systemic Risk Contagion Mechanism Based on Trade-Investment Network
Global economic crises such as the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis indicate that the growing interconnection between interna-tional trade and financial investment can contribute to cross-border risk contagion.Analysis of China's resilience to risks that originate and spread in specific ways from different countries is important for the systematic assessment of China's resistance to systemic risks in international trade and investment activities.Therefore,this paper develops a trade-investment network system and a model of systemic risks spreading through different channels among countries.Bilateral trade and portfolio data between China and OECD countries from 2003 to 2019 are selected for analysis.The study finds that:(1)major investing countries as contagion sources cause significant damage to the system,and China as a key trade country has a much lower degree of influence on the network than G7 countries,but its influence continues increasing during the study period.(2)independent of the source of risk contagion,the initial loss of the network system has a strong linear relationship with the final total loss.(3)China is less resilient to risks starting in North America,East Asia and Western Europe,and resistant to risks from Eastern Europe,South America and countries along the border between Asia and Europe;the nega-tive impact of G7 countries on China's trade and investing channel is extremely significant.
trade-investment networksystemic riskdynamic evolutionresilience to risks
万方数据
维普
