管理评论2024,Vol.36Issue(8) :39-51.

比特币交易网络结构演化特征与比特币价格波动的非对称联动研究

Asymmetric Linkage Analysis between Bitcoin Transaction Network Structure Evolution and Bitcoin Price Fluctuation

张文 谢锐 余乐安 李健
管理评论2024,Vol.36Issue(8) :39-51.

比特币交易网络结构演化特征与比特币价格波动的非对称联动研究

Asymmetric Linkage Analysis between Bitcoin Transaction Network Structure Evolution and Bitcoin Price Fluctuation

张文 1谢锐 1余乐安 2李健1
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作者信息

  • 1. 北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京 100124;北京工业大学区块链研究中心,北京 100124
  • 2. 四川大学商学院,成都 610041
  • 折叠

摘要

作为当前最具影响力的数字加密货币,比特币的价格机制一直是世界各国学者们关注的焦点.本文基于异构网络分析理论,利用2015年1月1日—2018年7月31日共计1307天的比特币交易数据构建比特币交易网络,并采用序列相关分析、长期协整检验、线性回归和门限回归模型分析比特币交易网络结构演化特征与比特币价格的联动机制.研究发现:比特币交易网络中的交易节点数、地址节点数、地址节点平均余额、地址网络直径对比特币价格具有正向联动效应,网络密度对比特币价格具有负向联动效应.当比特币价格处于低于和高于4360美元两种不同情况时,网络结构演化特征对价格的联动影响具有显著的非对称性,并且当价格高于4360美元时,网络结构演化特征对价格的影响更加显著.

Abstract

Bitcoin is the most influential digital cryptocurrency of the time and its price mechanism has attracted much attention from re-searchers in the world.Based on the heterogeneous network theory,this paper uses Bitcoin transaction data of 1,307 days from 1 January 2015 to 31 July 2018 to construct a Bitcoin transaction evolution network and,applies long-term series correlation analysis,cointegration test,linear regression and threshold regression model to analyze the linkage relationship between the structure evolution of Bitcoin hetero-geneous transaction network and Bitcoin price fluctuation.The research findings are as follows.First,the evolution of number of transac-tions,number of addresses,average balance of addresses and network diameter has positive linkage effects on the fluctuation of Bitcoin price.Second,the linkage effect is asymmetric in different price ranges:when Bitcoin price is below or above $ 4,360,there is a signif-icant difference on the linkage effect between network structure evolution and price fluctuation as the former has a significantly greater im-pact on the price fluctuation than the latter.

关键词

数字加密货币/比特币价格波动/异构网络分析/相关分析/非对称联动分析

Key words

digital cryptocurrency/Bitcoin pricing/heterogeneous network analysis/correlation analysis/asymmetric linkage analysis

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出版年

2024
管理评论
中国科学院研究生院

管理评论

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.801
ISSN:1003-1952
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