The Risk Spillover Effects of Real Estate Regulation:Evidence from LGFV's Land Purchase
In the process of transforming the real estate industry into a new development model,real estate risks are intertwined with im-plicit debt risks.Preventing and resolving the two important risks mentioned above is the key to coordinating development and security.Based on the micro-level land transaction data and financial information of local government financing vehicle(LGFV)from 2016 to 2021,this paper uses the real estate loan concentration management as an exogenous shock,to empirically analyze the risk spillover effects of real estate credit regulation through the channel of LGFV's land purchase.We find that the tightening of real estate credit regulation significantly increases the amount and area of land purchased by LGFVs.This positive impact mainly comes from the purchase of suburban land at low premiums,which indicates that local governments resort to the LGFV's land acquisition to cope with downward pressure in the real estate market.Due to the low land premium rate and insufficient real estate development capacity,LGFVs rarely engage in land mortgage financing,real estate develop-ment and operation,and land transfer and rental after borrowing to purchase land.Instead,local governments alleviate the liquidity pressure on LGFVs by partial refunds of land leasing fees.Therefore,after the tightening of real estate credit regulation,LGFV's land purchase at low premiums has increased their debt repayment pressure and weakened their profitability,thereby triggering the risk spillover effects of real es-tate regulation to local government implicit debt.The above findings provide new empirical evidence for cross-market spillover of economic and financial risks,and have policy implications for establishing a long-term mechanism of real estate regulation and preventing the systemic risks caused by the real estate industry.
real estate regulationrisk spilloverlocal government financing vehiclesland leasing
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NSTL
万方数据
