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数字经济发展水平对农业碳减排的促进效应研究

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在数字经济时代,推动全产业碳减排是应对全球气候变化风险的有效举措,考察数字经济发展水平对农业碳排放的影响对中国农业实现碳中和具有前瞻性意义。基于中国大陆31个省(区、市)1996-2020年的农业生产面板数据,采用排放系数法测算农业碳排放量,通过环境库兹涅茨曲线绘制与EKC检验来分析农业碳排放达峰趋势并作空间自相关性分析。利用熵值法测算各省(区、市)2011-2022年数字经济发展水平,采用空间计量模型、影响机制分析、异质性检验来研究数字经济发展水平对农业碳排放的影响。中国农业碳排放总体上于2014年实现达峰,全局Moran's I指数波动上升,农业碳排放强度变化表现出明显局部地理空间聚集趋势,数字经济发展水平对农业碳排放强度具有平均意义上32。6%的抑制作用。提出发展生态农业和提高农村数字经济渗透率等政策建议。
Research on the Promoting Effect of Digital Economy Development Level on Agricultural Carbon Reduction
In the era of digital economy,promoting industry-wide carbon emission reduction is an effective measure to to cope with the risks of global climate change.Examining the impact of digital economy development on agricultural carbon emissions has forward-looking significance for achieving carbon neutrality in Chinese agricul-ture.Based on the agricultural production panel data of 31 provinces in Chinese Mainland from 1996 to 2020,the agricultural carbon emissions were measured by the emission coefficient method,and the peak trend of agricultural carbon emissions was analyzed through environmental Kuznets curve drawing and EKC test and spatial autocorrela-tion analysis.Using the entropy method to calculate the level of digital economy development in each province(au-tonomous region,municipality directly under the central government)from 2011 to 2022,using spatial econometric models,impact mechanism analysis,and heterogeneity tests to study the impact of digital economy development lev-el on agricultural carbon emissions.Overall,China's agricultural carbon emissions reached their peak in 2014,with global Moran'sI increasing.The intensity of agricultural carbon emissions showed a clear trend of local geographic spatial clustering,and the level of digital economy development had an average inhibitory effect of 32.6%on agricul-tural carbon emission intensity.Propose policy recommendations on developing ecological agriculture and increas-ing the penetration rate of rural digital economy were put forward.

agricultural carbon emissionsdigital economyenvironmental Kuznets curve modelspatial durbin model

任艺、罗雷

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兰州财经大学经济学院,甘肃 兰州 730101

农业碳排放 数字经济 环境库兹涅茨曲线模型 空间杜宾模型

国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目

1074120230103

2024

甘肃科技纵横
甘肃省科技情报学会

甘肃科技纵横

影响因子:0.337
ISSN:1672-6375
年,卷(期):2024.53(9)