山西省1961-2022年典型区域降水变化特征分析
Analysis of precipitation change characteristics in typical regions of Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2022
裴克莉 1李文娟 1赵丽平 1王扬 2续梦琳3
作者信息
- 1. 山西省气象服务中心,山西太原 030002
- 2. 山西省气象台,山西太原 030006
- 3. 山西捷正气象信息技术有限公司,山西太原 030099
- 折叠
摘要
基于山西省典型区域(晋北地区、太原市和晋南地区)1961-2022年22个国家气象观测站的降水资料,应用气候倾向率、M-K(Mann-Kendall)趋势分析和突变检验方法,探究山西省典型区域的降水变化特征.结果表明:(1)近62年,山西省典型区域降水量符合山西省北少南多的纬向分布特征,且南部降水年际波动幅度较北部大.(2)三地降水分配情况均为夏季＞秋季＞春季＞冬季,晋南地区夏季降水占比低于晋北地区和太原市,而春秋冬季降水占比高于两地.(3)降水年际变化趋势不同,晋北地区年降水呈增加趋势,太原市和晋南地区呈减少趋势.M-K突变分析表明,太原市和晋南地区年降水量在1965年发生了由多到少的突变,此外2020年左右太原市仍存在降水突变.(4)三地不同阶段变化趋势相同,1961-1981年为波动减少的多雨期,1982-2002年为波动减少的少雨期,1983-2022年为波动增加的多雨期.(5)四季降水变化趋势不同,晋北地区和太原市除夏季呈减少趋势外,春、秋、冬季呈现不同程度的增加趋势;晋南地区除冬季呈较显著增加趋势外,春、夏、秋季呈不同程度的减少趋势;各地四季降水均量存在不同程度的突变.
Abstract
The precipitation data of 22 national meteorological stations in typical areas of Shanxi Province(northern Shanxi,Taiyuan and southern Shanxi)from 1961 to 2022 were used to explore the characteristics of precipitation changes in typical areas of Shanxi Province by using climate tendency rate,Mann-Kendall(M-K)trend analysis and mutation test.The results showed that:(l)In the past 62 years,the precipitation in typical areas of Shanxi Province conformed to the zonal distribution characteristics of less in the north and more in the south of Shanxi Province,and the interannual fluctuation of precipitation in the south was larger than that in the north.(2)The distribution of precipitation in three places was:summer＞autumn＞spring＞winter.The proportion of summer precipitation in southern Shanxi was lower than that in northern Shanxi and Taiyuan,while the proportion of spring,autumn and winter precipitation was higher than that in the other two places.(3)The interannual variation trend of precipitation was different.The annual pre-cipitation in northern Shanxi showed an increasing trend,while that in Taiyuan and southern Shanxi showed a decreasing trend.M-K mutation analysis showed that the annual precipitation in Taiyuan and southern Shanxi had a mutation from more to less in 1965.(4)The change trend of different stages in the three places was the same.1961-1981 was a rainy period with reduced fluctuations,1982-2002 was a rain-y period with reduced fluctuations,and 1983-2022 was a high precipitation period with increased fluctua-tions.(5)The variation trend of precipitation in four seasons was different.In addition to the decreasing trend in summer,the precipitation in northern Shanxi and Taiyuan showed an increasing trend in spring,autumn and winter,while in southern Shanxi,excepted for a significant increase in winter,there were dif-ferent degrees of decrease in spring,summer and autumn;there are different degrees of mutations in the four seasons precipitation.
关键词
降水量/变化趋势/气候倾向率/M-K检验/山西省典型区域Key words
Precipitation/Variation trend/Climatic tendency rate/Mann-Kendall test/Typical area of Shanxi Province引用本文复制引用
基金项目
2023年中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-018)
山西省应用基础研究面上基金项目(202203021221035)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据