基于博弈论—云模型的装配式建筑脆弱性评价
Vulnerability assessment of prefabricated buildings based on game theory-cloud model
苗卫强 1刘冰心 1宫博 1关明宇 1王天枢1
作者信息
- 1. 沈阳化工大学环境与安全工程学院,辽宁沈阳 110142
- 折叠
摘要
装配式建筑因其绿色环保、施工效率高等优点而发展迅速,但相关安全管理制度却不够完善,导致事故频发,限制了其推广速度.为有效降低装配式建筑事故发生率,针对防范风险评价过程中指标的模糊性与主观性,提出了一种基于博弈论—云模型的装配式建筑脆弱性评价模型.依据装配式建筑施工特点及安全事故机理,构建脆弱性评估指标体系,利用改进层次分析法(AHP)和熵权法分别计算了评价指标的主客观权重,并引入博弈论将之组合赋权,得到更加科学合理的综合权重;利用云模型理论对装配式建筑进行脆弱性等级评价;对成都市某装配式建筑工程项目开展实证分析.结果表明:该项 目脆弱性等级为"轻度脆弱",与现场情况基本一致,验证了该模型的合理性和有效性;并对脆弱性相对较高的人员和管理因素提出了相应的改进建议和措施,为装配式建筑安全管理提供了可行性参考.
Abstract
Prefabricated buildings develop rapidly because of its advantages of green environmental protec-tion and high construction efficiency,but the related safety management system is not perfect,frequent accidents limit its promotion speed.In order to effectively reduce the accident rate of prefabricated buildings and prevent the ambiguity and subjectivity of indicators in the process of risk assessment,a vulnerability assessment model of prefabricated buildings based on the game theory-cloud model was proposed.Accord-ing to the construction characteristics and safety accident mechanism of prefabricated buildings,the vulner-ability assessment index system was constructed,and the subjective and objective weights of evaluation indexes were calculated by the improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and entropy weight method respectively.The game theory was introduced to combine the weights and obtain a more scientific and rea-sonable comprehensive weight.The vulnerability grade of prefabricated buildings is evaluated by using cloud model theory.The empirical analysis of a prefabricated construction project in Chengdu City shows that the vulnerability level of the project is mild,which is basically consistent with the site situation,which verifies the rationality and validity of the model.In view of the relatively high vulnerability of personnel and management factors,the corresponding improvement suggestions and measures are put forward to provide a feasible reference for the safety management of prefabricated buildings.
关键词
装配式建筑/脆弱性/博弈论/改进层次分析法/熵权法/云模型Key words
Prefabricated building/Vulnerability/Game theory/Improved analytic hierarchy process/Entropy method/Cloud model引用本文复制引用
基金项目
辽宁省博士科研启动基金计划项目(2019-BS-188)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据