降水融合实况产品在内蒙古冬季强降水过程中的检验评估
Inspection and evaluation of precipitation merged products during winter heavy precipitation in Inner Mongolia
徐艳琴 1那庆 1张蛟娇 1陶睿 1刘学超2
作者信息
- 1. 内蒙古自治区气象信息中心,内蒙古呼和浩特 010000
- 2. 巴彦淖尔市人力资源和社会保障局,内蒙古临河 015000
- 折叠
摘要
利用内蒙古国家站逐小时降水观测资料,针对2021年11月发生在内蒙古冬季的一次强降水过程,采用多种评估指标对业务上的3种降水融合实况产品(FRT_5KM、RT_1KM、NRT_1KM)进行多角度检验评估.结果表明:在小时最大降水量方面,3种实况产品均与观测值有较好的对应关系,FRT_5KM在全区大部分地区呈现负偏差,两种1 km产品表现为较低的正偏差;在降水量分级客观检验中,除暴雪外,两种1 km产品的TS优于5 km产品,在准确率方面,NRT_1KM 优于RT_1KM优于FRT_5KM,FRT_5KM产品在中雪以上量级具有较高的漏报率,两种1 km产品在中雪、大雪、暴雪的空报率较高;3种实况产品在过程累计降水量方面均能很好地反映此次降水过程,1 km产品降水落区刻画更为细致,和实况有较高的一致性,但在非降水区具有明显空报.综合整体精度检验结果来看,评估时段内NRT_1KM产品的表现情况最好,相对来说FRT_5KM在内蒙古地区的检验精度较低.
Abstract
Using hourly precipitation observation data from National Station in Inner Mongolia Autono-mous Region,multiple evaluation indicators were used to conduct a multi-angle inspection and evaluation of the three precipitation fusion products in business for a heavy precipitation process that occurred in Inner Mongolia in winter in November 2021.The results indicate that in terms of hourly maximum precipitation,all three real-life products have good corresponding relationships with observed values,FRT_5KM exhibits negative bias in most regions of the region,while two 1 km products exhibit lower positive bias.In the ob-jective test of precipitation classification,except for blizzard,the TS of two 1 km products are better than those of 5 km products.In terms of accuracy,NRT_1KM is better than RT_1KM and is better than FRT_5KM,FRT_5KM products have a high miss rate in the range of moderate snow and above,while the two 1 km products have a higher miss rate in moderate snow,heavy snow,and blizzard.The three real-life prod-ucts can all reflect the precipitation process well in terms of cumulative precipitation during the process.The 1 km product has a more detailed description of the precipitation area,which is highly consistent with the actual situation.However,there is significant false alarm rate in non precipitation areas.Based on the o-verall accuracy test results,the performance of product NRT_1KM during the evaluation period is the best,while the accuracy of product FRT_5KM in Inner Mongolia is relatively low.
关键词
降水融合产品/内蒙古/冬季强降水/评估Key words
Precipitation merged products/Inner Mongolia/Winter heavy precipitation/Evaluation引用本文复制引用
基金项目
内蒙古自治区气象局科技创新项目(nmqxkjcx202333)
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据